Stepping out of the shadow of the past: how career attributes shape ministerial stability in post-communist democracies

Abstract

How do career attributes affect the survival of post-communist ministers? Building on standard models of delegation, we theorize that career attributes determine "desirability" of ministers, and therefore the length of their tenure. In addition, we theorize that political career attributes provide superior expertise and incentives and therefore protection to postcommunist ministers. This is in contrast to bureaucratic career attributes that "fall short" on both "desirability" markers. Utilizing a unique data set of individual ministers in four postcommunist countries in the first two decades after transition, we provide support for our expectations. We then demonstrate that while political and bureaucratic attributes acquired before transition remain relevant for the stability of post-communist ministers after transition, their value wanes over time as post-transition career attributes gain predominance. Our findings thus support a positive trajectory of institutional consolidation and "Westernization" during the first two decades after transition, at least as far as ministers' tenure is concerned.