This study proposes a sediment-budget model to predict the temporal variation of debris volume stored in a debrisflow prone watershed. The sediment-budget is dominated by shallow landslides and debris outflow. The basin topography and the debris volume stored in the source area of the debris-flow prone watershed help evaluating its debris-flow susceptibility. The susceptibility model is applied to the Tungshih area of central western Taiwan. The importance of the debris volume in predicting debris-flow susceptibility is reflected in the standardized coefficients of the proposed statistical discriminant model. The high prediction rate (0·874) for the occurrence of debris flows justifies the capability of the proposed susceptibility models to predict the occurrence of debris flows. This model is then used to evaluate the temporal evolution of the debris-flow susceptibility index. The analysis results show that the numbers of watershed which are classified as a debris-flow group correspond well to storage of sediment at different time periods. These numbers are 10 before the occurrence of Chi-Chi earthquake, 13 after the occurrence of Chi-Chi earthquake, 16 after the occurrence of landslides induced by Typhoon Mindulle (Typhoon M), and 14 after the occurrence of debris flows induced by Typhoon M. It indicates that the occurrence of 7·6 Chi-Chi earthquake had significant impact on the debris flow occurrence during subsequent typhoons. Figure 1. Location (red square marked in the index map) and geology of the Tungshih study site (Lee, 2000). The index map shows the geologic provinces of Taiwan (Ho, 1975).Figure 2. Selected 44 potential debris-flow torrents (PDFTs) in the Tungshih quardrangle. PDFTs are marked in yellow; the drainage basin (black polygon) and code number for each PDFT are shown. Red indicates landslides triggered by Typhoon Mindulle. Note: A ls (C), A ls (T), and A ls (M), shallow landslide area triggered by the Chi-Chi earthquake (C) and Typhoons T and M (T, M); V stor (M B ), debris storage volume (field investigated) between Typhoons T and M; L, channel length; S, channel gradient; A, catchment area; F, form factor; V SB (T) and V SB (M), storage volume for debris during Typhoons T and M.Figure 7. (a) The debris volume stored in the catchment of 44 selected PDFTs [log(V stor )]; and (b) susceptibility index I of PDFTs; which vary with the six different periods (P1-P6). The middle line of each period represents the mean log(V stor ) and I. The upper/lower lines indicate the range of plus/minus one standard deviation of log(V stor ) and I. The variation in the debris storage index log(V stor ) is influenced by the shallow landslides (P2, P3, and, P5) and debris outflow (P4, and P6) in the PDFTs. The squares in (b) represent the values of I greater than zero.