Stochastic Analysis of Structures in Fire by Monte Carlo Simulation

Shi, Kaihang; Guo, Qianru; Jeffers, Ann E.

doi:10.1260/2040-2317.4.1.37

Cited by 16 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Other fields and industries have been tested as well with successful academic publications like the ones applied to the evaluation of cost-risks based in sensitivity analysis (Okmen and Oztas, 2015). Stochastic models using Monte Carlo simulations are also implemented (Shi et al 2013). Interesting models testing capacity planning have been successfully made by Yang et al (2001).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Customer Concentration Versus Fragmentation and Its Implications in Corporate Risk

Hurtado¹,

Business²

2018

EJBM

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This research explores on one side, the composition and structure of databases of clients in a total of 204 multi-sectorial companies based in Spain, Thailand and Indonesia. The criterion used to differentiate a customer´s database structure relates to its degree of "fragmentation" versus "concentration". Also, the research has determined a risk model using a statistical Monte Carlo simulation method in each company. Both, risk levels expressed as certainty to obtain levels of profits and type of customer´s database structure have been analyzed under an Anova test and multiple correlation analysis exploring a total data of N=1020. Results are quite relevant with a conclusion that the volatility of sales affects significantly the changes in the values of certainty of profits, (although not directly to the levels of risk or certainty) related to the achievement of certain results in profits. Consequently, managers should be aware of the importance of a robust quantitative and qualitative accurate sales forecasting method which will contribute with no doubt to decrease corporate risk being extremely helpful when presenting plans or forecasts in front of any kind of stakeholders.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Customer Concentration Versus Fragmentation and Its Implications in Corporate Risk

Hurtado¹,

Business²

2018

EJBM

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“…The measured data obtained from various experimental programs and relevant case studies show existence of significant degree of uncertainty, which consequently affects structural performance under fire loading. The existing methodologies have resulted in practice in which structural reliability under fire is relatively undefined and Member and structural fragility 409 vague (Shi et al, 2013). Moreover, results from empirical models are in complete disagreement with comparatively modern risk-based approaches, indicating the existence of significant uncertainties in the system, which resulted in obtaining the response to be highly sensitive to these uncertain parameters (Van Coile et al, 2013;Huang and Delichatsios, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Initially, probabilistic methodology in fire safety engineering was used to investigate load and resistance factors for designing structures exposed to fire (Ellingwood, 2005). Thereafter, Monte Carlo (MC) simulation and reliability techniques were used to investigate member level performance of RC structures considering uncertainties in structural capacity and fire loading (Sidibé et al, 2000;Shi et al, 2013;Guo et al, 2013;Balogh and Vigh, 2016;Kho et al, 2017). It was concluded that the proposed methodologies provided insight into more practical approach to assess the reliability for more complex JSFE 11,4 structural systems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Member and structural fragility of reinforced concrete structure under fire

Chaudhary

Roy

Matsagar

2020

JSFE

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Purpose Despite recognizing the significance of risk-based frameworks in fire safety engineering, the usual approach in structural fire design is largely member/component level, wherein effect of uncertainties influencing the fire resistance of structures are not explicitly considered. In this context, a probabilistic framework is presented to investigate the vulnerability of a reinforced concrete (RC) members and structure under fire loading scenario. Design/methodology/approach The RC structures exposed to fire are modeled in a finite element (FE) platform incorporating material and geometric nonlinearity, in which the transient thermo-mechanical analysis is carried out by suitably incorporating the temperature variation of thermal and mechanical properties of both concrete and steel rebar. The stochasticity in the system is considered in structural resistance, thermal and fire model parameters, and the subsequent fragility curves are developed considering threshold limit state of deflection. Findings The fire resistance of RC structure is reported to be significantly lower in comparison to the RC members, thereby illustrating the current prescriptive design approaches based on studies of structural member behavior to be crucial from a safety and reliability point of view. Practical implications The framework developed for the vulnerability assessment of RC structures under fire hazard through FE analysis can be effectively used to estimate the structural fire resistance for other similar structure to enhance safety and reliability of structures under such extreme threats. Originality/value The paper proposes a novel methodology for vulnerability assessment of three-dimensional RC structures under fire hazard through FE analysis and provides comparison of the structural fragility with fragility developed for structural members. Moreover, the research emphasizes to assume 3D behavior of the structure rather than the approximate 2D behavior.

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“…The probability of structural fire damage using probabilistic methods has been evaluated in several studies. Most of them focus on multi-story buildings where the life safety objective is addressed by ascertaining a sufficiently low probability of structural fire damage (Shi et al, 2013;Van Coile et al, 2013). Sandström et al (2017) shifted the focus for structural fire safety design of single-story, single-compartment buildings from structural fire damage alone to inclusion of consideration to the fire conditions in the fire compartment.…”

Section: Introduction 11 Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

Life safety in single-story steel frame buildings, Part II - probabilistic design

Sandström¹

2020

JSFE

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Purpose This paper aims to investigate the probability of unacceptable consequences from structural fire damage in a typical Scandinavian single-story steel frame building and discusses it in relation to life safety. This paper is a complement to the paper “Life safety in single-story steel frame buildings, Part I – deterministic design” by Sandström (2019) which considers the same design philosophy but with a probabilistic design approach. Design/methodology/approach The reliability of a single-story steel frame building is investigated by using crude Monte Carlo simulation by including consideration to the fire conditions. Findings The investigated building does not meet the safety levels as stipulated by EN 1990 for structural fire damage. However, by including consideration to the fire conditions in the compartment, it is shown that the life safety objective is not compromised by the structural fire damage, i.e. the structure remains intact as long as any individuals/firefighters can survive within the fire area compartment. Originality/value This paper presents practical application of a conceptual paper presenting a general approach to structural fire safety design and the life safety objective.

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Stochastic Analysis of Structures in Fire by Monte Carlo Simulation

Cited by 16 publications

References 16 publications

Customer Concentration Versus Fragmentation and Its Implications in Corporate Risk

Customer Concentration Versus Fragmentation and Its Implications in Corporate Risk

Member and structural fragility of reinforced concrete structure under fire

Life safety in single-story steel frame buildings, Part II - probabilistic design

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