Stochastic approach to analyzing the uncertainties and possible changes in the availability of water in the future based on scenarios of climate change

Abstract

Abstract. The objective of this study was to analyze the changes and uncertainties related to water availability in the future (for the purposes of this study, the period between 2011 and 2040 was adopted), using a stochastic approach, taking as reference a climate projection from climate model Eta CPTEC/HadCM3. The study was applied to the Ijuí River basin in the south of Brazil. The set of methods adopted involved, among others, correcting the climatic variables projected for the future, hydrological simulation using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to define a number of monthly flows and stochastic modeling to generate 1000 hydrological series with equal probability of occurrence. A multiplicative type stochastic model was developed in which monthly flow is the result of the product of four components: (i) long-term trend component; (ii) cyclic or seasonal component; (iii) time-dependency component; and (iv) random component. In general, the results showed a trend to increased flows. The mean flow for a long period, for instance, presented an alteration from 141.6 m 3 s −1

Assessing extreme precipitation from a regional climate model in different spatial–temporal scales: A hydrological perspective in South America

“…In this paper we only compare the historical period with observed data. Climate data from these simulations are available online at https://projeta.cptec.inpe.br/ and have being used frequently for hydrological assessments in South America, especially in Brazil (Oliveira et al ., 2015; Ribeiro Neto et al ., 2016; de Oliveira et al ., 2017; Santos et al ., 2019). Thus, it is essential to understand how well Eta represents precipitation in different temporal and spatial scales to adequately project the climate change impacts on drainage basins.…”

“…Today, there are coordinated Eta simulations for climate research in South America nested in four different GCMs with a horizontal resolution of 20 km (Chou et al, 2014a;2014b), although a more local version (5 km) has been applied for Southeast Brazil (Lyra et al, 2018). The output from this model has been frequently applied to assess hydrological impacts due to climate change (Oliveira et al, 2015;Ribeiro Neto et al, 2016;Santos et al, 2019) even in relatively small drainage basins (<5,000 km 2 ) (Alvarenga et al, 2016;de Oliveira et al, 2019;Andrade et al, 2020), but studies testing how well Eta represents precipitation regime focusing on hydrological purposes are rare. Chou et al (2014b) evaluated precipitation through long-term monthly and seasonal means discussing average results mostly over three large regions in Brazil-North, Northeast and Central-South (area of at least 1.5 million km 2 ).…”

Entrevista Como Ferramenta: Mapeamento Do Processo Projetual De Produtos Feitos Com Resíduos Têxteis

“…ABSTRACT:PEDROLLO;CASTRO, 2015).Neste sentido, o objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar as incertezas associadas as projeções climáticas do modelo Eta-Hadgem2-ES em relação as variáveis mensais de precipitação, radiação solar, umidade relativa e temperatura do ar (máxima, mínima e média), observadas na estação meteorológica de Concordia/SC, no período de 1987 a 2018.…”

Prognósticos de alterações nas vazões de base como meio de suporte ao gerenciamento de recursos hídricos

“…RCM's associam a solução numérica dos GCM's a dados detalhados de relevo e vegetação de uma determinada região para produzir informações mais detalhadas.Os dados de projeções do modelo ETA-HadGEM2-ES são largamente empregados em estudos no Brasil. Ainda, as séries projetadas passaram por correção de viés, conforme método descrito porOLIVEIRA et al, (2015). O procedimento objetivou reduzir as incertezas associadas aos dados projetados pelo modelo climático para a região da BHPM.…”