Stochastic cost-benefit analysis to assess new infrastructure to improve the reliability of the natural gas supply

Cabrales, Sergio; Valencia, Carlos; Ramírez-Ruiz, Carlos; Ramirez, Andrés Felipe Vargas; Herrera, Juan C.; Cadena, Alberto

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2022.123421

Cited by 8 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…However, in real-word EES planning, CISP is incapable of evaluating the costs and benefits of each scheme; it has difficulties in judging the relationship between investment and benefit to measure the value of each scheme. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) provides a way to evaluate costs and benefits of various schemes so as to obtain the best scheme with the most benefit and the least cost in investment decision based on certain principles [33]. Specifically, CBA could compute net benefit through the cost and benefit of various schemes, as depicted as…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Extreme Random Uncertainty in Energy and Environment Systems for Coal-Dependent City by a Copula-Based Interval Cost–Benefit Stochastic Approach

Liu,

Tan,

Wei

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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Extreme random events will interfere with the inversion analysis of energy and environment systems (EES) and make the planning schemes unreliable. A Copula-based interval cost–benefit stochastic programming (CICS) is proposed to deal with extreme random uncertainties. Taking Yulin city as an example, there are nine constraint-violation scenarios and six coal-reduction scenarios are designed. The results disclose that (i) both system cost and pollutant emission would decrease as the industrial energy supply constraint-violation level increases; (ii) when the primary and secondary energy output increases by 9% and 13%, respectively, and industrial coal supply decreases by 40%, the coal-dependent index of the system would be the lowest, and the corresponding system profitability could reach [29.3, 53.0] %; (iii) compared with the traditional chance-constrained programming, Copula-based stochastic programming can reflect more uncertain information and achieve a higher marginal net present value rate. Overall, the CICS-EES model offers a novel approach to gain insight into the tradeoff between system reliability and profitability.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Extreme Random Uncertainty in Energy and Environment Systems for Coal-Dependent City by a Copula-Based Interval Cost–Benefit Stochastic Approach

Liu,

Tan,

Wei

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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show abstract

“…Nevertheless, [16]- [19] do not consider reliability criteria. In [20], a stochastic analysis to evaluate new infrastructure to increase the reliability of the natural gas supply is proposed, considering the operative uncertainty of the transport pipeline and the gas supply, in transmission systems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Operation of Electricity and Natural Gas Distribution Networks: A Reliability Analysis

Cortés

Isaza

Salazar

2022

TecnoL.

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Currently the world faces a great challenge, to achieve a sustainable production of energy, which allows the adequate development of humanity but at the same time does not irreversibly affect the environment. For this, it is absolutely necessary to make optimal and effective use of the available energy resources, in order to aim for energy transition objectives that result in the rational and efficient use of energy, the penetration of renewable resources, and social development. This requires that at a technical level, methodologies be proposed that allow for a holistic analysis of the different interactions and synergies present in the energy system. Therefore, it is essential to delve into the knowledge associated with the interaction between the electricity and natural gas networks, since natural gas is expected to be the energy source that supports the increase in generation from intermittent renewable energy sources. It is for the above that this research work analyzes the reliability of the electric power distribution network based on the impact associated with a contingency in the natural gas distribution network, when both networks are coupled through natural gas-based distributed power generators. A novel non-supplied energy index and a single contingency criterion are used for estimation purposes, considering failure rates and repair times of the natural gas network to obtain a more accurate in the estimation. Numerical results show that significant penetration of natural gas-based distributed generation can compromise the reliability of the power distribution network if the natural gas network is of low reliability.

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Natural gas spot price prediction research under the background of Russia-Ukraine conflict - based on FS-GA-SVR hybrid model

Zheng

Luo

Chen

et al. 2023

Journal of Environmental Management

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Stochastic cost-benefit analysis to assess new infrastructure to improve the reliability of the natural gas supply

Cited by 8 publications

References 23 publications

Analysis of Extreme Random Uncertainty in Energy and Environment Systems for Coal-Dependent City by a Copula-Based Interval Cost–Benefit Stochastic Approach

Analysis of Extreme Random Uncertainty in Energy and Environment Systems for Coal-Dependent City by a Copula-Based Interval Cost–Benefit Stochastic Approach

Integrated Operation of Electricity and Natural Gas Distribution Networks: A Reliability Analysis

Natural gas spot price prediction research under the background of Russia-Ukraine conflict - based on FS-GA-SVR hybrid model

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