Stochastic Dynamic Programming with Risk Consideration for Transbasin Diversion System

Tingsanchali, Tawatchai; Boonyasirikul, Thana

doi:10.1061/(asce)0733-9496(2006)132:2(111)

Cited by 9 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…The first four scenarios (1 to 4) optimize the rule curves for individual objectives, namely maximization of net economic benefits from irrigation supplies, power production, sediment evacuation, and flood dis-benefits, respectively. Next four scenarios (5 to 8) combine all four individual objectives by various priority weights ranging from 1 to 10 000 in order to make them significantly different (Tingsanchali and Boonyasirikul, 2006). The significantly different values of priority weights are assigned to find the effects of each objective component on the optimization results with a specific reservoir operation policy.…”

Section: Priority Weightsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimization and simulation of reservoir operation with sediment evacuation: a case study of the Tarbela Dam, Pakistan

Khan

Tingsanchali

2008

Hydrological Processes

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Abstract:Many reservoirs around the world are being operated based on rule curves developed without considering the evacuation of deposited sediment. Current reservoir simulation and optimization models fall short of incorporating the concept of sustainability because the reservoir storage losses due to sedimentation are not considered. This study develops a new model called Reservoir Optimization-Simulation with Sediment Evacuation (ROSSE) model. The model utilizes genetic algorithm based optimization capabilities and embeds the sediment evacuation module into the simulation module. The sediment evacuation module is implemented using the Tsinghua university flushing equation. The ROSSE model is applied to optimize the rule curves of Tarbela Reservoir, the largest reservoir in Pakistan with chronic sedimentation problems. In the present study, rule curves are optimized for maximization of net economic benefits from water released. The water released can be used for irrigation, power production, sediment evacuation, and for flood control purposes. Relative weights are used to combine the benefits from these conflicting water uses. Nine sets of rule curves are compared, namely existing rule curves and proposed rule curves for eight scenarios developed for various policy options. These optimized rule curves show an increase of net individual economic benefits ranging from 9 to 248% over the existing rule curves. The shortage of irrigation supply during the simulation period is reduced by 38% and reservoir sustainability is enhanced by 28% through increased sediment evacuation. The study concludes that by modifying the operating policy and rule curves, it is possible to enhance the reservoir's sustainability and maximize the net economic benefits. The developed methodology and the model can be used for optimization of rule curves of other reservoirs with sedimentation problems.

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Section: Priority Weightsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimization and simulation of reservoir operation with sediment evacuation: a case study of the Tarbela Dam, Pakistan

Khan

Tingsanchali

2008

Hydrological Processes

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“…A traditional approach to take risks into account in reservoir operation is using a utility function to represent decision maker's risk aversion attitude (Keeney and Wood 1977;Loucks et al 1981;Krzysztofowicz 1986;Loaiciga and Mariño 1986;Bouchart and Goulter 1998;Tingsanchali and Boonyasirikul 2006). However, it is difficult to identify the utility function that actually represents decision maker's risk aversion attitude (Hashimoto et al 1982;Nardini et al 1992).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk-aversion optimal hedging scenarios during droughts

Shiau

2022

Appl Water Sci

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The primary purpose of a water supply reservoir is to regular highly fluctuating streamflow for providing reliable water supplies. Reducing water shortage risk for impending droughts is a challenge task in real-time reservoir operation due to future inflow uncertainty. The main aim of this study is to propose risk-aversion optimal hedging scenarios during droughts, which is achieved by a two-stage approach. The water shortage probabilities of future lead times are analytically estimated first, then follows an optimization framework that simultaneously minimizing water shortage probabilities of future lead times and sustaining long-term water supply reliability. With an illustration application of the Nanhua Reservoir located in southern Taiwan, the results indicate that the proposed optimization framework provides an efficient hedging to reduce future water shortage probabilities and mitigate severe water shortages in real-time operation. The proposed optimal hedging scenarios outperforms the rule-curve-based current operation. Further improvements are noted for the time-varying rationing coefficient scenarios than the constant-coefficient scenario and the most favorable scenario is the scenario with the highest time-varying frequency. Using the storage to trigger hedging associated with estimated future lead-time water shortage probabilities as the objective functions, the proposed optimal hedging scenarios are not only risk aversion but also executable in real-time operation during droughts.

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Optimization of Multiple Reservoirs Operation with Consideration to Sediment Evacuation

Rashid

Shakir

Khan

et al. 2015

Water Resour Manage

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Stochastic Dynamic Programming with Risk Consideration for Transbasin Diversion System

Cited by 9 publications

References 8 publications

Optimization and simulation of reservoir operation with sediment evacuation: a case study of the Tarbela Dam, Pakistan

Optimization and simulation of reservoir operation with sediment evacuation: a case study of the Tarbela Dam, Pakistan

Risk-aversion optimal hedging scenarios during droughts

Optimization of Multiple Reservoirs Operation with Consideration to Sediment Evacuation

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