Stochastic modeling of the &lt;i&gt;Monkeypox&lt;/i&gt; 2022 epidemic with cross-infection hypothesis in a highly disturbed environment

Khan, Asad; Sabbar, Yassine; Din, Anwarud

doi:10.3934/mbe.2022633

Cited by 34 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…These nine studies analyzed the transmission dynamics of mpox between humans, as well as between humans and animals using the standard susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) classes [17]. However, although most studies considered an "exposed" compartment to model the spread of the disease, in some cases the authors added a "quarantined" or "isolated infected" compartment to study the effect of control measures [31,18,32]. Other compartments that were added in some studies to account for various scenarios of Branching process [11] 2003…”

Section: Compartmental Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…No geographic region identified Compartmental (stochastic) [18] 2022 United Kingdom Branching process [10] 2022…”

Section: Compartmental Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…No geographic region identified Compartmental (fractional order) [9] disease spread include compartments for those vaccinated [38,37], those clinically ill [32], and compartments to model different stages of mpox where infection can occur (prodromal and rash phases) [39]. Two of the nine compartmental studies considered an extension of the classical model by introducing fractional order time-derivative [9,31] and one considered a stochastic extension with Lévy noise [18]. Furthermore, the non-human population in the compartmental studies included monkeys and/or rodents [4,31,32], squirrels [3], or all of the species that can carry mpox [38].…”

Section: Compartmental Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sensitive (C 1 ), infected (C 2 ), isolated infected (C 3 ), recovered (C 4 ). Subindices indicate humans (h) or animals (m) [18].…”

Section: Compartments Definitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mathematical modeling of mpox: a scoping review

Molla

Sekkak

Mundo

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Background: Mpox (monkeypox), a disease historically endemic to Africa, has seen its largest outbreak in 2022 by spreading to many regions of the world and has become a public health threat. Informed policies aimed at controlling and managing the spread of this disease necessitate the use of adequate mathematical modelling strategies. Objective: In this scoping review, we sought to identify the mathematical models that have been used to study mpox transmission in the literature in order to determine what are the model classes most frequently used, their assumptions, and the modelling gaps that need to be addressed in the context of the epidemiological characteristics of the ongoing mpox outbreak. Methods: This study employed the methodology of the PRISMA guidelines for scoping reviews to identify the mathematical models available to study mpox transmission dynamics. Three databases (PubMed, Web of Science and MathSciNet) were systematically searched to identify relevant studies. Results: A total of 5827 papers were screened from the database queries. After screening, 35 studies that met the inclusion criteria were analyzed, and 19 were finally included in the scoping review. Our results show that compartmental, branching process, Monte Carlo (stochastic), agent-based, and network models have been used to study mpox transmission dynamics between humans as well as between humans and animals. Furthermore, compartmental and branching models have been the most commonly used classes. Conclusions: There is a need to develop modelling strategies for mpox transmission that take into account the conditions of the current outbreak, which has been largely driven by human-to-human transmission in urban settings. In the current scenario, the assumptions and parameters used by most of the studies included in this review (which are largely based on a limited number of studies carried in Africa in the early 80s) may not be applicable, and therefore, can complicate any public health policies that are derived from their estimates. The current mpox outbreak is also an example of how more research into neglected zoonoses is needed in an era where new and re-emerging diseases have become global public health threats.

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Section: Compartmental Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…No geographic region identified Compartmental (stochastic) [18] 2022 United Kingdom Branching process [10] 2022…”

Section: Compartmental Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Compartmental Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sensitive (C 1 ), infected (C 2 ), isolated infected (C 3 ), recovered (C 4 ). Subindices indicate humans (h) or animals (m) [18].…”

Section: Compartments Definitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mathematical modeling of mpox: a scoping review

Molla

Sekkak

Mundo

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…A model incorporating sexual behavior dynamics and stratifying the population into high-and low-risk groups was developed in [26]. Stochastic models and individual based simulations for the current outbreak are also being developed [27][28][29][30].…”

Section: Mathematical Models Of Mpxmentioning

confidence: 99%

Voluntary vaccination may not stop monkeypox outbreak: A game-theoretic model

et al. 2022

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Monkeypox (MPX) is a viral zoonotic disease that was endemic to Central and West Africa. However, during the first half of 2022, MPX spread to almost 60 countries all over the world. Smallpox vaccines are about 85% effective in preventing MPX infections. Our objective is to determine whether the vaccines should be mandated or whether voluntary use of the vaccine could be enough to stop the MPX outbreak. We incorporate a standard SVEIR compartmental model of MPX transmission into a game-theoretical framework. We study a vaccination game in which individuals decide whether or not to vaccinate by assessing their benefits and costs. We solve the game for Nash equilibria, i.e., the vaccination rates the individuals would likely adopt without any outside intervention. We show that, without vaccination, MPX can become endemic in previously non-endemic regions, including the United States. We also show that to “not vaccinate” is often an optimal solution from the individual’s perspective. Moreover, we demonstrate that, for some parameter values, there are multiple equilibria of the vaccination game, and they exhibit a backward bifurcation. Thus, without centrally mandated minimal vaccination rates, the population could easily revert to no vaccination scenario.

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Estimation of the serial interval of monkeypox during the early outbreak in 2022

Guo

Zhao

Sun

et al. 2022

Journal of Medical Virology

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With increased transmissibility and novel transmission mode, monkeypox poses new threats to public health globally in the background of the ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic. Estimates of the serial interval, a key epidemiological parameter of infectious disease transmission, could provide insights into the virus transmission risks. As of October 2022, little was known about the serial interval of monkeypox due to the lack of contact tracing data. In this study, public‐available contact tracing data of global monkeypox cases were collected and 21 infector‐infectee transmission pairs were identified. We proposed a statistical method applied to real‐world observations to estimate the serial interval of the monkeypox. We estimated a mean serial interval of 5.6 days with the right truncation and sampling bias adjusted and calculated the reproduction number of 1.33 for the early monkeypox outbreaks at a global scale. Our findings provided a preliminary understanding of the transmission potentials of the current situation of monkeypox outbreaks. We highlighted the need for continuous surveillance of monkeypox for transmission risk assessment.

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Stochastic modeling of the <i>Monkeypox</i> 2022 epidemic with cross-infection hypothesis in a highly disturbed environment

Cited by 34 publications

References 25 publications

Mathematical modeling of mpox: a scoping review

Mathematical modeling of mpox: a scoping review

Voluntary vaccination may not stop monkeypox outbreak: A game-theoretic model

Estimation of the serial interval of monkeypox during the early outbreak in 2022

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