We present a method for determining structural properties of the ensemble of folding transition states from protein simulations. This method relies on thermodynamic quantities (free energies as a function of global reaction coordinates, such as the percentage of native contacts) and not on ''kinetic'' measurements (rates, transmission coefficients, complete trajectories); consequently, it requires fewer computational resources compared with other approaches, making it more suited to large and complex models. We explain the theoretical framework that underlies this method and use it to clarify the connection between the experimentally determined ⌽ value, a quantity determined by the ratio of rate and stability changes due to point mutations, and the average structure of the transition state ensemble. To determine the accuracy of this thermodynamic approach, we apply it to minimalist protein models and compare these results with the ones obtained by using the standard experimental procedure for determining ⌽ values. We show that the accuracy of both methods depends sensitively on the amount of frustration. In particular, the results are similar when applied to models with minimal amounts of frustration, characteristic of rapid-folding, single-domain globular proteins.protein folding ͉ ⌽ values ͉ folding funnels ͉ folding landscapes E nergy landscape theory and the funnel concept have provided a theoretical framework for understanding protein folding (1-7), which is an alternative to the earlier idea that there is a single pathway for the folding event comprising uniquely defined structural intermediates (8,9). The connection between the landscape theory and real proteins is best established in the context of small fast folding proteins, which fold on millisecond time scales and have a single folding domain; i.e., they are two-state folders with a single, well defined funnel (10). In addition to the theoretical literature describing this theory and its applications (see, for example, the citations above, refs. 5 and 6, and references therein), a new generation of clever experiments [NMR dynamic spectroscopy, protein engineering, laser initiated folding, and ultrafast mixing (see, for example, refs. 11-27)] are providing the temporal and spatial detail needed to extend and elaborate on it.A central result of this theory is that proteins with funneled landscapes have population dynamics that can be understood as the diffusion of an ensemble of configurations over a lowdimensional free energy surface (1, 3, 4). This energy surface may be constructed by using many different order parameters. The primary requirements are that they distinguish native-like and non-native-like structures and that they group together conformations with similar energies; ¶ i.e., the dispersion in energies of states with similar values of these parameters is small. Many simple order parameters that are computationally convenient, like the number of tertiary contacts Q, or experimentally convenient, like the radius of gyration, satisfy these r...