Stochastic Strong Ground Motion Simulation of the 12 November 1999 Duzce (Turkey) Earthquake Using a Dynamic Corner Frequency Approach

Abstract

On 12 November 1999, only three months after the 17 August 1999Kocaeli earthquake (M w 7:4), an earthquake of M w 7:1 occurred immediately to the east of the Kocaeli rupture in northwestern Turkey resulting in extensive structural damage in the city of Düzce and its surrounding area. It was reported to be a rightlateral strike slip event on the previously unbroken segment of the North Anatolian fault zone with a north-dipping fault plane. This paper presents stochastic finite-fault simulation of near-field ground motions from this earthquake at selected near-fault stations based on a dynamic corner frequency approach using the computer program EXSIM (Motazedian and Atkinson, 2005). The method requires region-specific source, path, and site characterizations as input model parameters. The source mechanism of the 1999 Düzce event and regional path effects are well constrained from previous studies of the earthquake. The local site effects at the selected stations are studied as a combination of the kappa operator and frequency-dependent soil amplification. The model parameters are validated against recordings and a stress-drop value of 100 bars is estimated for the 1999 Düzce earthquake. The validated model is then used to compute synthetic records around the fault. Distribution of peak ground-motion parameters is observed to be consistent with the building damage distribution in the near-fault region most affected by the seismic shaking. The attenuation of synthetic ground-motion parameters is compared with recent ground-motion prediction equations proposed for the region by Gülkan and Kalkan (2002), Ulusay et al. (2004), and Akkar and Bommer (2007), as well as two next generation attenuation models by Boore and Atkinson (2007) and Campbell and Bozorgnia (2007). Despite discrepancies at several stations, stochastic finite-fault modeling based on a dynamic corner frequency approach confirms to be a practical tool to reproduce the ground motions of large earthquakes.

Stochastic ground-motion simulations for the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake

“…The optimized value of stress drop, 64 bars, is reasonable for a large event (Ugurhan and Askan 2010;Zengin and Cakti 2014). The stress drop determined here contributes to reliable estimates of simulated PSA, because it controls the spectral amplitude at high frequencies (Motazedian and Atkinson 2005).…”

“…The stochastic finite-fault method is widely used in ground-motion simulations of past or scenario earthquakes (Ugurhan and Askan 2010;Ghofrani et al 2013;Safarshahi et al 2013;Zengin and Cakti 2014;Mittal and Kumar 2015). Compared with other ground-motion simulation methods, such as the deterministic or hybrid approach, the advantages of the stochastic method are its independence of small earthquake selection and good performance at both low and high frequencies (Motazedian and Atkinson 2005).…”

Comparison of Energy-Based Responses of Structural Systems to Real and Simulated Ground Motion Records

“…In the first part of this study, the real and simulated records of the 1999 Duzce event at a total of five stations are used in order to validate the simulated records of this event in terms of seismic input energy evaluation. The simulated records at these stations are prepared using the stochastic finite-fault ground motion simulation methodology based on a dynamic corner frequency approach [12]. It is noted that the stochastic finite fault simulation method simulates only one random horizontal component at each station.…”

“…In this study, first, the 1999 Duzce event is simulated using the previously validated source, path, and site parameters [11]. For simulations, the stochastic finite-fault methodology which can efficiently model the frequencies of engineering interest is employed [12]. Next, seismic input energy levels for elastic and inelastic SDOF systems with varying periods are assessed through time history analysis.…”

Seismological and Engineering Demand Misfits for Evaluating Simulated Ground Motion Records

“…The low frequencies, which are solved mostly by deterministic methods, need precise source and velocity models (e.g., [12][13][14][15][16][17][18]). On the other hand, incoherency of the phase angles can be modeled using stochastic approaches (e.g., [19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28]). In order to model the broadband frequency range, hybrid ground motion simulation techniques are introduced (e.g., [29][30][31][32][33]).…”