Stochastically induced climate shift of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation

Flügel, Moritz; Chang, Ping

doi:10.1029/1999gl900550

Cited by 31 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…However, the model is able to predict the negative mean temperature anomaly over multi-year periods; this extends to the multiyear timescale the limited predictability that Karspeck et al (2004) found for decadal timescales. The existence of some predictability on these timescales also implies that longterm variability is not driven entirely by stochastic processes (Flugel and Chang 1999) in this model.…”

Section: Forecasts Of the Decadal Mean State In The Zc Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An alternative perspective on this phenomenon is provided by dynamical systems theory: the chaotic nature of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system of the Tropical Pacific can give rise to an oscillation between different regimes of behavior on decadal timescales (Timmermann and Jin 2002;Tziperman et al 1994). Another possibility is that stochastic atmospheric variability within the Tropical Pacific region produces shifts in ENSO properties on decadal timescales (Flugel and Chang 1999).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predictability and prediction of persistent cool states of the Tropical Pacific Ocean

2016

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Section: Forecasts Of the Decadal Mean State In The Zc Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictability and prediction of persistent cool states of the Tropical Pacific Ocean

2016

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“…In this view, the coupled mode is in a stable damped regime, and thus the ENSO cycle cannot be self-sustained without external noise forcing (Penland and Sardeshmukh 1995;Flügel and Chang 1996;Moore and Kleeman 1999a,b;Kleeman and Moore 1997;Thompson andBattisti 2000, 2001;Flügel et al 2004). All noise forcing is not equal, however, and the spatial structure of some types of high-frequency atmospheric phenomena may project especially well onto optimally growing perturbations (Kessler and Kleeman 2000;Moore and Kleeman 1999b).…”

Section: A Enso Irregularity and Predictability Limitmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some studies argue that the stochastically driven, damped ENSO system can exhibit "decadal regime shifts" that resemble the observed ENSO amplitude modulation (Flügel and Chang 1999;Thompson and Battisti 2001;Kleeman et al 2003;Yeh et al 2004;Flügel et al 2004), and thus propose that the stochastic ENSO mechanism should be regarded as a null hypothesis for decadal modulation of ENSO. Kirtman et al (2005) used a new coupled general circulation model (CGCM) coupling strategy, called an interactive ensemble procedure (Kirtman and Shukla 2002), to reduce the impact of internal atmospheric variability on coupled ENSO dynamics.…”

Section: ) Stochastic Mechanismmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Fluctuations of Tropical Coupled Systems—The Role of Ocean Dynamics

et al. 2006

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The tropical oceans have long been recognized as the most important region for large-scale oceanatmosphere interactions, giving rise to coupled climate variations on several time scales. During the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) decade, the focus of much tropical ocean research was on understanding El Niño-related processes and on development of tropical ocean models capable of simulating and predicting El Niño. These studies led to an appreciation of the vital role the ocean plays in providing the memory for predicting El Niño and thus making seasonal climate prediction feasible. With the end of TOGA and the beginning of Climate Variability and Prediction (CLIVAR), the scope of climate variability and predictability studies has expanded from the tropical Pacific and ENSO-centric basis to the global domain. In this paper the progress that has been made in tropical ocean climate studies during the early years of CLIVAR is discussed. The discussion is divided geographically into three tropical ocean basins with an emphasis on the dynamical processes that are most relevant to the coupling between the atmosphere and oceans. For the tropical Pacific, the continuing effort to improve understanding of large-and small-scale dynamics for the purpose of extending the skill of ENSO prediction is assessed. This paper then goes beyond the time and space scales of El Niño and discusses recent research activities on the fundamental issue of the processes maintaining the tropical thermocline. This includes the study of subtropical cells (STCs) and ventilated thermocline processes, which are potentially important to the understanding of the low-frequency modulation of El Niño. For the tropical Atlantic, the dominant oceanic processes that interact with regional atmospheric feedbacks are examined as well as the remote influence from both the Pacific El Niño and extratropical climate fluctuations giving rise to multiple patterns of variability distinguished by season and location. The potential impact of Atlantic thermohaline circulation on tropical Atlantic variability (TAV) is also discussed. For the tropical Indian Ocean, local and remote mechanisms governing low-frequency sea surface temperature variations are examined. After reviewing the recent rapid progress in the understanding of coupled dynamics in the region, this study focuses on the active role of ocean dynamics in a seasonally locked east-west internal mode of variability, known as the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). Influences of the IOD on climatic conditions in Asia, Australia, East Africa, and Europe are discussed. While the attempt throughout is to give a comprehensive overview of what is known about the role of the tropical oceans in climate, the fact of the matter is that much remains to be understood and explained. The complex nature of the tropical coupled phenomena and the interaction among them argue strongly for coordinated and sustained observations, as well as additional careful modeling investigations in order to further advance the current...

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“…Flü gel and Chang (1999), Yeh et al (2004), Flü gel et al (2004), Kleeman et al (2003) all argue that the low frequency modulation of ENSO amplitude is entirely driven by atmospheric noise and unrelated to TPDV based on the analysis of coupled models. On the other hand, Fedorov and Philander (2000) suggested that TPDV forces changes in the ENSO statistics (see also Kirtman and Schopf 1998).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Source of low frequency modulation of ENSO amplitude in a CGCM

et al. 2007

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We study the relationship between changes in equatorial stratification and low frequency El Niñ o/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude modulation in a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) that uses an anomaly coupling strategy to prevent climate drifts in the mean state. The stratification is intensified at upper levels in the western and central equatorial Pacific during periods of high ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, changes in equatorial stratification are connected with subsurface temperature anomalies originating from the central south tropical Pacific. The correlation analysis of ocean temperature anomalies against an index for the ENSO modulation supports the hypothesis of the existence of an oceanic ''tunnel'' that connects the south tropical Pacific to the equatorial wave guide. Further analysis of the wind stress projection coefficient onto the oceanic baroclinic modes suggests that the low frequency modulation of ENSO amplitude is associated with a significant contribution of higher-order modes in the western and central equatorial Pacific. In the light of these results, we suggest that, in the CGCM, change in the baroclinic mode energy distribution associated with low frequency ENSO amplitude modulation have its source in the central south tropical Pacific.

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Stochastically induced climate shift of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation

Cited by 31 publications

References 25 publications

Predictability and prediction of persistent cool states of the Tropical Pacific Ocean

Predictability and prediction of persistent cool states of the Tropical Pacific Ocean

Climate Fluctuations of Tropical Coupled Systems—The Role of Ocean Dynamics

Source of low frequency modulation of ENSO amplitude in a CGCM

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