Theoretical studies suggest that the abrupt and substantial changes in the productivity of some fisheries species may be explained by predation-driven alternate stable states in their population levels. With this hypothesis, an increase in fishing or a natural perturbation can drive a population from an upper to a lower stable-equilibrium population level. After fishing is reduced or the perturbation ended, this low population level can persist due to the regulatory effect of the predator. Although established in theoretical studies, there is limited empirical support for predation-driven alternate stable states in exploited marine fish populations. We present evidence that egg predation by haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) can cause alternate stable population levels in Georges Bank Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus). Egg predation by haddock explains a substantial decoupling of herring spawning stock biomass (an index of egg production) from observed larval herring abundance (an index of egg hatching). Estimated egg survival rates ranged from <2-70% from 1971 to 2005. A population model incorporating egg predation and herring fishing explains the major population trends of Georges Bank herring over four decades and predicts that, when the haddock population is high, seemingly conservative levels of fishing can still precipitate a severe decline in the herring population. These findings illustrate how efforts to rebuild fisheries can be undermined by not incorporating ecological interactions into fisheries models and management plans.depensation | predator pit | population dynamics | fish recruitment C lassic single-species fishery models, which assume that changes in population abundance are largely a function of fishing mortality and density-dependent population responses, cannot account for the rapid and persistent shifts in abundance observed in some marine fish populations (1, 2). This lack of agreement between model predictions and observed trends may be explained by the inability of single-species models to resolve alternate stable states in population levels caused by species interactions (1, 3). In the simplest form, a population with alternate stable states has three equilibrium levels: an upper and lower stable equilibrium and an intermediate unstable equilibrium, above which population growth is positive and below which it is negative. This contrasts with the single upper stable equilibrium, or carrying capacity, of classic population models, including most single-species fisheries models. One mechanism that can generate alternate stable states in a population is consumption by a predator that becomes satiated at high prey abundances (1,(4)(5)(6). With this mechanism, per capita mortality from predation increases as the prey population declines. Below the unstable equilibrium, predation mortality is sufficient to cause negative population growth. At very low population abundances, prey switching by the predator or the existence of a predation refuge results in the lower stable equilibrium; this low...