Background:
Severe falciparum malaria is a major cause of death in tropical countries, particularly in African children. Accurate diagnosis and prognostic assessment are critical to clinical management.
Methods:
The prognostic value of the malaria parasite count, and the proportions of polymorphonuclear leukocytes (PMNs) and monocytes (PMMs) containing malaria pigment in peripheral blood films were assessed in three randomized controlled trials conducted in severe malaria patients; two in Southeast Asia (AQ Vietnam; n=483 and SEAQUAMAT; n=1,330) and one in Africa (AQUAMAT; n=4,211). Following a systematic review of the literature, we incorporated these data into an individual patient data meta-analysis including published data from the Severe Malaria in African children (SMAC) network (n=25,845) and a study from Mali (n=166).
Findings:
The proportion of pigment containing PMNs on peripheral blood films was strongly positively correlated with prognosis (odds-ratio for in-hospital mortality for a tenfold increase: 2.53 [95% CI: 2.13-3.00], p=10^-26). The meta-analytic odds-ratio estimate for in-hospital death in patients with >5% pigment containing PMNs compared with lower values was 2.67 (95% CI: 2.08-3.42; p=10-14). Particularly in African children, the proportion of pigment containing PMNs added substantially to the prognostic assessment from simple bedside examination, and also to the conventional parasite count. In all analyses, the proportion of pigment containing monocytes had a lower prognostic value.
Interpretation:
Microscopy assessment of the proportion of pigment containing PMNs in a blood film is simple and rapid, and should be performed in all patients hospitalised with suspected severe malaria. Patients with >5% pigment containing PMNs have more than double the risk of death.
Other: Funded by Wellcome. The systematic review was registered prospectively on PROSPERO, number CRD42021284527.