Storm surge modelling for the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

Dube, S. K.; Indu, J.; Rao, A. D.; Murty, T. S.

doi:10.1007/s11069-009-9397-9

Cited by 168 publications

(97 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…The occurrence of modeled maximum surge height at some distance away from the track to the right side may be attributed to the coarse resolution bathymetry data. Similar results were obtained by Dube et al (2009Dube et al ( , 2010) for TC's originated in BoB (NIO). However, beneath the storm centre before the landfall the lower SSH values could also be seen, this may be due to strong divergence flow/upwelling.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 90%

Development of tropical cyclone wind field for simulation of storm surge/sea surface height using numerical ocean model

Das

Mohanty

Indu

2015

Model. Earth Syst. Environ.

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Coupled ocean-atmospheric phenomenon such as tropical cyclones (TC's) is governed by geophysical fluid dynamics. TC associated strong wind stress transfer momentum energy to the ocean surface that acts as the prime mechanism in modulating the sea surface and in generating the storm surge. A primitive equation, Princeton ocean model (POM) with free surface, sigma (terrain-following) coordinates and realistic bottom topography is configured in Bay of Bengal (BoB) to simulate the storm surge/sea surface height (SSH) and surface currents during a super cyclone TC05B 1999. TC wind fields are developed by adopting a suitable formulation based on partial conservation of angular momentum. Modeled TC wind fields are superimposed with QuikSCAT Satellite/National Centre for Environmental Prediction (QSCAT/NCEP) blended ocean surface winds to drive the three-dimensional ocean model. Model simulated storm surge and SSH are compared with limited available surge estimates/observations and multi-satellite observed AVISO (Archive, Validation and Interpolation of Satellite Oceanography) SSH, respectively to evaluate its performance.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 90%

Development of tropical cyclone wind field for simulation of storm surge/sea surface height using numerical ocean model

Das

Mohanty

Indu

2015

Model. Earth Syst. Environ.

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“…This paper examines whether storm surge is the primary driver of a large number of tropical cyclone deaths across South Asian countries (Murty et al 1986). This hypothesis is popular among researchers of natural disasters who are concerned with tropical cyclone impacts in this region (Ali 1999;Karim and Mimura 2008;Dube et al 2009;Hallegatte et al 2011;Harman et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is Tropical Cyclone Surge, Not Intensity, What Kills So Many People in South Asia?

Seo¹,

Bakkensen

2017

Weather, Climate, and Society

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This paper statistically examines the hypothesis that the level of storm surge, not storm intensity, is primarily responsible for the large number of tropical cyclone fatalities in South Asia. Because the potential causal link between intensity and surge can confound statistical inference, the authors develop two fatality models using different assumptions on the relationship between storm surge and intensity. The authors find evidence that storm surge is a primary killer of people in South Asia relative to storm intensity. In a surgepressure independence model, it is found that a 10-cm increase in storm surge results in a 14% increase in the number of fatalities. In a surge-pressure dependence model, a 10-cm increase in the level of surge not driven by minimum central pressure (MCP) leads to 9.9% increase in the number of fatalities. By contrast, a one-millibar (1 hPa) decrease in MCP leads to a 7.3% increase in the number of fatalities, some of which is also attributable to storm surge. In South Asia, adaptation strategies should target a higher level of storm surge instead of higher-intensity storms. Policies to combat surge include permanent relocation, temporary evacuation, changes in building structures, and coastal fortification.

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“…Along the Bangladesh coast itself, tropical storms of 1876, 1891, 1970 and 1991, and the subsequent surges taken a toll of 100,000 lives (Gönnert et al 2001). It may also be noted that storm surges in the Bay of Bengal attracted the largest number of publications such as Das (1972), Flierl and Robinson (1972), Murty et al (1986), Khalil (1992), Vatvani et al (2000), Rao et al (2004), Kumar et al (2008) and Dube et al (2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Storm surges in the Singapore Strait due to winds in the South China Sea

et al. 2012

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Among the semi-enclosed basins of the world ocean, the South China Sea (SCS) is unique in its configuration as it lies under the main southwest-northeast pathway of the seasonal monsoons. The northeast (NE) monsoon (November-February) and southwest (SW) monsoon (June-August) dominate the large-scale sea level dynamics of the SCS. Sunda Shelf at the southwest part of SCS tends to amplify Sea Level Anomalies (SLAs) generated by winds over the sea. The entire region, bounded by Gulf of Thailand on the north, Karimata Strait on the south, east cost of Peninsular Malaysia on the west, and break of Sunda Shelf on the east, could experience positive or negative SLAs depending on the wind direction and speed. Strong sea level surges during NE monsoon, if coincide with spring tide, usually lead to coastal floods in the region. To understand the phenomena, we analyzed the wind-driven sea level anomalies focusing on Singapore Strait (SS), laying at the most southwest point of the region. An analysis of Tanjong Pagar tide gauge data in the SS, as well as satellite altimetry and reanalyzed wind in the region, reveals that the wind over central part of SCS is arguably the most important factor determining the observed variability of SLAs at hourly to monthly scales. Climatological SLAs in SS are found to be positive, and of the order of 30 cm during NE monsoon, but negative, and of the order of 20 cm during SW monsoon. The largest anomalies are associated with intensified winds during NE monsoon, with historical highs exceeding 50 cm. At the hourly and daily timescales, SLA magnitude is correlated with the NE wind speed over central part of SCS with an average time lag of 36-42 h. An exact solution is derived by approximating the elongated SCS shape with one-dimensional two-step channel. The solution is utilized to derive simple model connecting SLAs in SS with the wind speeds over central part of SCS. Due to delay of P. Tkalich (&)

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Storm surge modelling for the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

Cited by 168 publications

References 31 publications

Development of tropical cyclone wind field for simulation of storm surge/sea surface height using numerical ocean model

Development of tropical cyclone wind field for simulation of storm surge/sea surface height using numerical ocean model

Is Tropical Cyclone Surge, Not Intensity, What Kills So Many People in South Asia?

Storm surges in the Singapore Strait due to winds in the South China Sea

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