Storyline attribution of human influence on a record-breaking spatially compounding flood-heat event

Abstract

Attribution of compound events informs preparedness for emerging hazards with disproportionate impacts. However, the task remains challenging because space-time interactions among extremes and uncertain dynamic changes are not satisfactorily addressed in the well-established attribution framework. For attributing the 2020 record-breaking spatially compounding flood-heat event in China, we conduct a storyline attribution analysis by designing simulation experiments via a weather forecast model, quantifying component-based attributable changes, and comparing with historical flow analogs. We quantify that given the large-scale circulation, anthropogenic influence to date has exacerbated the extreme Mei-yu rainfall in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River during June–July 2020 by ~6.5% and warmed the co-occurring seasonal extreme heat in South China by ~1°C. Our projections show a further intensification of the compound event by the end of this century, with moderate emissions making the rainfall totals ~14% larger and the season ~2.1°C warmer in South China than the 2020 status.

Wind Speed and Vegetation Coverage in Turn Dominated Wind Erosion Change With Increasing Aridity in Africa

“…In addition, anthropogenic activities within a broader concept, such as elevated carbon dioxide emissions, are driving global climate change. As well as combining local anthropogenic activities in this climatic context co‐driven changes in wind speed (Wu et al., 2018), air temperature (Wang et al., 2023), and precipitation (Xia et al., 2022) are also influencing wind erosion. However, the process of this anthropogenic influence on wind erosion is very complex, and the quantification of the influence is very difficult, although it is the key to clarify the mechanism of anthropogenic influence on wind erosion.…”

Concurrent modes of climate variability linked to spatially compounding wind and precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere

“…The winter season is considered as most storms and CWP extremes occur over this season across the Northern Hemisphere (Greeves et al, 2007;Hansen et al, 2019), and modes such as NAO and ENSO are most effective during winter (Krichak and Alpert, 2005;Toniazzo and Scaife, 2006). Using large ensemble climate model simulations provides a large sample size that enables a robust model-based analysis of the effects of rare concurrent variability mode anomalies on low probability CWP extremes (van der Wiel et al, 2019;Singh et al, 2021;Raymond et al, 2022;Bevacqua et al, 2023;Qian et al, 2023;Wang et al, 2023).…”