Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010-2012 event

Chan, Wilson C. H.; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Smith, Katie; Darch, Geoff; Arnell, Nigel W.

doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1544

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…Calibration parameters for the GR4J hydrological model at 303 UK catchments are available from the Environmental Information Data Centre (https://doi.org/10.5285/f710bed1-e564-47bf-b82c-4c2a2fe2810e, Smith et al, 2018). The input (precipitation and PET) and output (simulated river flows) data for each storyline for each catchment are available on the Zenodo repository (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5180494, Chan et al, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010–2012 event

Chan

Shepherd

Smith

et al. 2022

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Spatially extensive multi-year hydrological droughts cause significant environmental stress. The UK is expected to remain vulnerable to future multi-year droughts under climate change. Existing approaches to quantify hydrological impacts of climate change often rely solely on global climate model (GCM) projections following different emission scenarios. This may miss out low-probability events with significant impacts. As a means of exploring such events, physical climate storyline approaches aim to quantify physically coherent articulations of how observed events could hypothetically have unfolded in alternative ways. This study uses the 2010–2012 drought, the most recent period of severe hydrological drought in the UK, as a basis and analyses storylines based on changes to (1) precondition severity, (2) temporal drought sequence, and (3) climate change. Evidence from multiple storylines shows that the maximum intensity, mean deficit, and duration of the 2010–2012 drought were highly influenced by its meteorological preconditions prior to drought inception, particularly for northern catchments at shorter timescales. The influence of progressively drier preconditions reflects both the spatial variation in drought preconditions and the role of physical catchment characteristics, particularly hydrogeology in the propagation of multi-year droughts. There are two plausible storylines of an additional dry year with dry winter conditions repeated either before the observed drought or replacing the observed dramatic drought termination confirm the vulnerability of UK catchments to a “third dry winter” storyline. Applying the UKCP18 climate projections, we find that drought conditions worsen with global warming with a mitigation of drought conditions by wetter winters in northern catchments at high warming levels. Comparison of the storylines with a benchmark drought (1975–1976) and a protracted multi-year drought (1989–1993) shows that, for each storyline (including the climate change storylines), drought conditions could have matched and exceeded those experienced during the past droughts at catchments across the UK, particularly for southern catchments. The construction of storylines based on observed events can complement existing methods to stress test UK catchments against plausible unrealised droughts.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010–2012 event

Chan

Shepherd

Smith

et al. 2022

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

Self Cite

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“…what if the northerly jet stream persisted longer than observed). Similarly, Chan et al (2021) created counterfactual event storylines to quantify how much worse the 2010-12 UK drought could have been if it was preceded by drier preconditions or followed by a plausible third dry winter. These approaches make use of traditional "top-down" scenarios in novel ways and could be particularly useful to satisfy requirements in water resources planning such as assessing resilience to one in 500-years droughts for which there are no historical observations.…”

Section: Emerging Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tracking the methodological evolution of climate change projections for UK river flows

Chan

Shepherd

Smith

et al. 2022

Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment

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Much research has been carried out on the possible impacts of climate change for UK river flows. Catchment and national-scale studies since the early 1990s are here categorized into four modelling approaches: “top-down” GCM (Global Climate Model)-driven and probabilistic approaches and “bottom-up” stylised and scenario-neutral approaches. Early studies followed a stylised approach with a small number of model experiments focused on system sensitivity. GCM-driven approaches dominate since the mid-1990s and are scenario-led and “top-down”, but which incur the cascade of uncertainty which results in a large amount of information that may not be conducive to decision-making. The emergence of probabilistic projections aims to incorporate probabilistic information in navigating climate model uncertainty but remained “top-down” with challenges over its practical use for water resources planning. The scenario-neutral approach has clear roots in the early stylised approach with the aim to explore plausible futures beyond climate model projections and system sensitivity. A synthesis of studies employing each approach shows that the magnitude and sign of change in different hydrological variables remain uncertain between different regions of the UK. Comparison between studies is difficult due to their methodological differences and consequently different choices along the impact modelling chain, and with a notable geographic bias in catchment selection in southeast England. Major limitations for each approach include barriers to decision-making from wide uncertainty ranges, limited consideration of high-impact outcomes, and challenges in their application in water resources planning. These challenges represent priorities for future research using new “hybrid” approaches to produce complementary information to “top down” projections within a more “bottom-up” framework. Exploratory modelling, robust decision-making and storylines are examples of new approaches that have emerged. Key to the emerging approaches identified is a need to combine different modelling approaches to tackle different sources of uncertainty according to the intended aims of individual applications.

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Tailoring climate information and services for adaptation actors with diverse capabilities

Wilby

Lu²

2022

Climatic Change

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With louder demands in public discourse for action on adaptation to climate change, efforts to improve the provision and use of climate information and services (CIS) are also gaining prominence. Drawing on literature about uptake of CIS for climate risk assessment and adaptation, plus our own practical experiences, this Essay examines modes of user-provider interaction in CIS. By employing a customer-tailor analogy, three overlapping types of CIS transaction are identified: ‘off-the-peg’, ‘outsourced’ and ‘bespoke’. Evident across all modes are ‘loyalty card’ customers who return to the same provider(s). We then offer a set of prompts to facilitate more meaningful engagement and dialogue between adaptation actors and providers. These questions could also be used to seed discussions within communities that research and provide training in CIS, as well as amongst stakeholders, funders and other institutions involved in the governance of CIS systems. Such searching and timely conversations could advance a more tailored approach to CIS delivery, regardless of the technical and financial starting point of users and providers.

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Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010-2012 event

Cited by 4 publications

References 62 publications

Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010–2012 event

Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010–2012 event

Tracking the methodological evolution of climate change projections for UK river flows

Tailoring climate information and services for adaptation actors with diverse capabilities

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