Strategic ambiguity and the Trumpian approach to China–Taiwan relations

Abstract

The notion of strategic ambiguity has long guided the United States’ engagement in cross-strait relations, requiring that Washington is intentionally unclear about whether and how it would intervene in a China-Taiwan conflict in order to preserve a balance of assurance and deterrence for both sides. This article unpacks the US approach to strategic ambiguity under Trump. Adopting a neo-classical realist perspective, it argues that domestic and individual level drivers-in particular, US populism, Congress and the foreign policy establishment, and Trump's transactional and personalized approach to foreign policy-have interacted with the shifting US-China balance of power to produce a different mode of American strategic ambiguity in the Taiwan Strait. A common view is that as a function of the growing US-China power competition, the US has largely leaned towards Taiwan in recent years. Our analysis revises this assessment by revealing a form of strategic ambiguity under Trump that, despite appearing to upset the balance of ambiguity in favour of Taiwan-paradoxically and probably unintentionally-maintains assurances and warnings for both China and Taiwan. Yet, while Trump has arguably preserved the overall balance of strategic ambiguity, he has introduced greater volatility into cross-strait relations.

International identity construction: China’s pursuit of the responsible power identity and the American Other

“…The period of analysis—2017–2020—means that we are essentially focusing on Trump’s America as a key source of external role inputs for China’s great power identity, which makes for an interesting case because the advent of Trump’s presidency had marked a shift away from traditional US engagement of China in unprecedented ways (Boon and Sworn, 2020). It is true, of course, that the Biden administration has assumed power since 2021.…”

“…In part connected to an "America First" narrative that is distinctly populist and anti-globalist, Trump would preside over a course correction in American policy toward China. Less interested in seeking China to contribute to international society, the Trump administration was more concerned with confronting Beijing on what it regards to be the latter's enduring pattern of "unfair" and "egregious" behavior (Boon and Sworn, 2020). Notably, there was a perceptible omission of the responsible-power concept in American role discourse of China under Trump.…”

Strategic Ambiguity in US-Taiwan Relations During the Donald Trump Administration

“…In analysing President Trump's period in office, the most valuable original documents were those previously unavailable to researchers, including the US Indo-Pacific Strategy that was partially declassified in January 2021. Also noteworthy are the numerous interpretations of Donald Trump's policies published during his term in office, such as the joint work of Hoo Tiang Boon and H. E. Sworn (Boon H. T., 2020), articles by Chinese researcher Zuo Xiying (2019) or analyses by J. F. Copper (2017), as well as the book Dangerous Decade by B. Taylor (2019).…”