Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 2: Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and the Highway System: Practitioner's Guide and Research Report

Meyer, Michael D.; Flood, Michael; Keller, Jake; Lennon, Justin; McVoy, Gary; Dorney, Chris; Leonard, Ken; Hyman, Robert; Smith, Joel B.

doi:10.17226/22473

Cited by 37 publications

(35 citation statements)

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“…Reliable information about the exposure of road infrastructure networks to extreme weather events is of major concern for road authorities, governmental institutions and safety researchers all over the world (TRB, 2008;Koetse and Rietveld, 2009;Eisenack et al, 2011;Doll et al, 2013;UN-ECE, 2013;Meyer et al, 2014;Michaelides, 2014;Schweikert et al, 2014a, b;Matulla et al, 2017). In a changing climate (IPCC, 2012) and due to extensive soil sealing (Nestroy, 2006) the impacts of extreme weather events are likely to increase in both frequency and intensity (APCC, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme weather exposure identification for road networks – a comparative assessment of statistical methods

Schlögl

Laaha

2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The assessment of road infrastructure exposure to extreme weather events is of major importance for scientists and practitioners alike. In this study, we compare the different extreme value approaches and fitting methods with respect to their value for assessing the exposure of transport networks to extreme precipitation and temperature impacts. Based on an Austrian data set from 25 meteorological stations representing diverse meteorological conditions, we assess the added value of partial duration series (PDS) over the standardly used annual maxima series (AMS) in order to give recommendations for performing extreme value statistics of meteorological hazards. Results show the merits of the robust L-moment estimation, which yielded better results than maximum likelihood estimation in 62 % of all cases. At the same time, results question the general assumption of the threshold excess approach (employing PDS) being superior to the block maxima approach (employing AMS) due to information gain. For low return periods (non-extreme events) the PDS approach tends to overestimate return levels as compared to the AMS approach, whereas an opposite behavior was found for high return levels (extreme events). In extreme cases, an inappropriate threshold was shown to lead to considerable biases that may outperform the possible gain of information from including additional extreme events by far. This effect was visible from neither the square-root criterion nor standardly used graphical diagnosis (mean residual life plot) but rather from a direct comparison of AMS and PDS in combined quantile plots. We therefore recommend performing AMS and PDS approaches simultaneously in order to select the best-suited approach. This will make the analyses more robust, not only in cases where threshold selection and dependency introduces biases to the PDS approach but also in cases where the AMS contains non-extreme events that may introduce similar biases. For assessing the performance of extreme events we recommend the use of conditional performance measures that focus on rare events only in addition to standardly used unconditional indicators. The findings of the study directly address road and traffic management but can be transferred to a range of other environmental variables including meteorological and hydrological quantities.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme weather exposure identification for road networks – a comparative assessment of statistical methods

Schlögl

Laaha

2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…• How global changes will manifest as regional impacts; and • What responses best protect against the adverse consequences of climate change impacts. The transportation community is becoming increasingly concerned about how these climatic changes may affect various aspects of transportation system planning, operations, management, and design (Dewar and Wachs 2008;Meyer 2006;Meyer et al 2014;Savonis et al 2008;Schwartz et al 2013;USGCRP 2009). According to the Transportation Research Board (TRB 2008), temperature increases could lead to a softening of road surfaces, thermal expansion of the joints in bridges, rail line deformation, and equipment failures.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Adaptive Approach to Transportation-Infrastructure Planning for Climate Change: San-Francisco-Bay-Area Case Study

Wall

Walker

Marchau

et al. 2015

J. Infrastruct. Syst.

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Adaptation of existing infrastructure is a response to climate change that can ensure a viable, safe, and robust transportation network. However, deep uncertainties associated with climate change pose significant challenges to adaptation planning. Specifically, current transportation planning methods are ill-equipped to address deep uncertainties, as they rely on designing responses to a few predicted futures, none of which will occur exactly as envisioned. In this paper, we propose using dynamic adaptive planning (DAP), an emerging general strategic planning method, to account for deep uncertainties by building flexibility and learning mechanisms into plans that enable continuous adaptation throughout implementation. This paper first reviews uncertainty in general, introduces what is meant by deep uncertainty, and then introduces DAP. Then, DAP is applied to a case study of the Oakland approach to the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge, which was initially assessed under the 2010-2011 FHWA Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Pilot program, to illustrate how DAP could be applied as a response to climate change in the context of evolving transportation infrastructure adaptation planning practices in the United States. We conclude that DAP is well suited to account for the deep uncertainties of climate change in transportation and infrastructure planning, and provide suggestions for further research to better apply DAP in this field.

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“…To adapt to the impacts posed by climate change, a critical early step is to determine the types and levels of climate risks (Meyer et al, 2014). Many traditional risk assessment approaches have been extensively applied to perform risk assessment in different sectors.…”

Section: Critical Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Eisenack et al, 2012). A critical early step in establishing a comprehensive framework is to assess climate risks, including the types and levels, so as to strengthen the resilience and robustness of transport infrastructure and operations to these risks (Meyer et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How can the UK road system be adapted to the impacts posed by climate change? By creating a climate adaptation framework

Wang

Yang

et al. 2019

Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment

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How can the UK road system be adapted to the impacts posed by climate change? By creating a climate adaptation framework http://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/10349/ Article LJMU has developed LJMU Research Online for users to access the research output of the University more effectively.This paper aims to analyse the impacts of climate change to the current and predicted future situations of road transportation in the UK and evaluate the corresponding adaptation plans to cope with them. A conceptual framework of long-term adaptation planning for climate change in road systems is proposed to ensure the resilience and sustainability of road transport systems under various climate risks such as flooding and increased temperature. To do so, an advanced Fuzzy Bayesian Reasoning (FBR) model is first employed to evaluate the climate risks in the UK road transport networks. This modelling approach can tackle the high uncertainty in risk data and thus facilitate the development of the climate adaptation framework and its application in the UK road sector. To examine the feasibility of this model, a nationwide survey is conducted among the stakeholders to analyse the climate risks, in terms of the timeframe of climate threats, the likelihood of occurrence, the severity of consequences, and infrastructure resilience. From the modelling perspective, this work brings novelty by expanding the risk attribute "the severity of consequence" into three sub-attributes including economic loss, damage to the environment, and injuries and/or loss of life. It advances the-state-of-the-art technique in the current relevant literature from a single to multiple tier climate risk modelling structure. Secondly, an Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach is used to prioritise the best adaptation measure(s) by considering both the risk analysis results from the FBR and the implementation costs simultaneously. The main new contributions of this part lie in the rich raw data collected from the real world to provide useful practical insights for achieving road resilience when facing increasing climate risk challenges. During this process, a qualitative analysis of several national reports regarding the impacts posed by climate change, risk assessment and adaptation measures in the UK road sector is conducted for the relevant decision data (i.e. risk and cost). It is also supplemented by an in-depth interview with a senior planner from Highways England. The findings provide road planners and decision makers with useful insights on identification and prioritisation of climate threats as well as selection of costeffective climate adaptation measures to rationalise adaptation planning.

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Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 2: Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and the Highway System: Practitioner's Guide and Research Report

Cited by 37 publications

References 0 publications

Extreme weather exposure identification for road networks – a comparative assessment of statistical methods

Extreme weather exposure identification for road networks – a comparative assessment of statistical methods

Dynamic Adaptive Approach to Transportation-Infrastructure Planning for Climate Change: San-Francisco-Bay-Area Case Study

How can the UK road system be adapted to the impacts posed by climate change? By creating a climate adaptation framework

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