Strategic low-cost energy investment opportunities and challenges towards achieving universal access (SDG7) in each African nation

Abstract

Strategic energy planning to achieve universal access and cover the future energy needs in each African nation is essential to lead to effective, sustainable energy decisions to formulate mitigation and adaptation climate change policy measures. Africa can not afford a cost-increasing green energy transition pathway towards achieving SDG7. In this analysis, least-cost power generation investment options using energy systems analysis enhanced with geospatial data for each African nation are identified, considering different levels of electricity consumption per capita (Low, High) and costs of renewables (New Policies, Renewable Deployment scenarios). The power generation capacity needs to increase between 211GW (NPLs) and 302GW (RDHs) during 2021-2030 to achieve SDG7 in Africa, leading to electricity generation to rise between 6,221PJ (NPLs) - 7,527PJ (NPHs) by 2030. Higher electricity consumption levels lead to higher penetration of fossil fuel technologies in the power mix of Africa. To achieve the same electricity demand levels, decreasing renewables' costs can assist in a less carbon-intensive power system, although higher capacity is needed. However, Africa is still hard to achieve its green revolution. Depending on the scenario, grid-connected technologies are estimated to supply approximately 85%-90% of the total electricity generated in Africa in 2030, mini-grid technologies roughly 1%-6%, and stand-alone technologies 8%-11%. Solar off-grid and solar hybrid mini-grid technologies play an essential role in electrifying the current un-electrified settlements in residential areas. Natural gas will be the dominant fossil fuel source by 2030, while the decreasing costs of renewables make solar overtake hydropower. Higher penetration of renewable energy sources in the energy mix creates local jobs and increases cost-efficiency. Approximately 6.9 million (NPLs) to 9.6 million (RDHs) direct jobs can be created in Africa by expanding the power sector during 2020-2030 across the supply chain. Increasing the electricity consumption levels in Africa leads to higher total system costs, but it is estimated to create more jobs that can ensure political and societal stability. Also, the decreasing costs of renewables could further increase the penetration of renewables in the energy mix, leading to a higher number of jobs.