Strategies of Expansion for Electric Power Systems Based on Hydroelectric Plants in the Context of Climate Change: Case of Analysis of Colombia

Abstract

The phenomena of climatic variability such as El Niño affect the expansion planning of electricity supply systems with hydroelectric power plants due to the uncertainty presented in the variables of rainfall patterns, temperature, wind, solar radiation changes, among others. The El Niño affects the electricity generation in Colombia, Venezuela and northwestern Brazil due to severe droughts that reduce water flows in rivers and water volume in dams. While in Peru, Paraguay, Bolivia, Uruguay, Argentina and southern Brazil, causes heavy rains that lead to an increase in reservoirs. Recent findings provide sufficient evidence on how climate change modifies the patterns of duration, frequency and intensity of El Niño and therefore will introduce additional uncertainties to the expansion planning of electricity generation systems in countries that uses predominantly hydroelectric power. The vulnerability of electricity supply systems with a significant participation of hydroelectric power plants in Colombia,

Análisis de sustentabilidad de la generación eléctrica en Colombia mediante la proyección de indicadores de eficiencia energética

“…En cuanto a su comportamiento histórico, se observa que entre los años 2008 y 2010 hubo una reducción cercana al 10% de la eficiencia en las plantas eléctricas del país, esto pudo ser debido al incremento en el uso de plantas térmicas y de auto y cogeneración, las cuales tienen menor eficiencia que las plantas hidroeléctricas. Durante los años 2009 al 2011 se presentó el fenómeno ambiental El Niño-Oscilación del Sur (ENSO, por sus siglas en inglés), el cual generó un periodo de sequía prolongada produciendo una disminución del caudal de los ríos y por ende del volumen útil de agua para producir energía eléctrica mediante plantas hidroeléctricas [33]. Entre el 2018 y el 2020, se observa otra caída en la eficiencia energética del sistema, la cual pudo estar relacionada con las restricciones Como es de esperarse en la Figura 4, si la eficiencia aumenta, la intensidad energética primaria (IEP) disminuye, al reducir el consumo de fuentes primarias para generar mayor cantidad de energía eléctrica.…”

Land-use in the Electric Colombian System: Hidden Impacts and Risks of Large-scale Renewable Projects

“…However, in 2019, in Colombia was held the first auction of non-conventional renewable energy in Colombia, accounting for 1298.8 MW, five wind projects at large-scale, and three solar photovoltaic projects at large-scale (Moreno and Larrahondo, 2021). The expansion of electric power system in Colombia based on high participation of hydropower plants has represented a critical vulnerability, new findings reveal that climate change provokes modifications in the patterns of duration and frequency of El Niño (Restrepo-Trujillo, 2020). Given the intrinsic vulnerability in the Colombian electric system to produce electric energy properly at any time, some regulatory mechanisms has been designed to improve reliability, however, according to the energy commission in Colombia (CREG) persists risks of coverage in the medium term .…”

Potential of Photovoltaic Generation in the Putumayo Department of Colombia

“…Fossil fuel energy production has been one of the main contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, the highest in history this last decade. Therefore, complementing the energy matrix with renewable energies (RE) is a necessity, especially considering the energy vulnerability of Colombia to the uncertainty presented by the phenomena of climatic variability such as El Niño [5].…”