Abstract. The temporal and kinematic evolution of fold-thrust belts is a critical component for evaluating the viability of proposed plate tectonic, geodynamic and even climatic processes in regions of convergence. Thermochronometer data have the potential to provide temporal constraints, but interpretations of these data are sensitive to both exhumational and deformational processes. In this study, reconstructions of a balanced geologic cross section in the Himalayan fold-thrust belt 10 of eastern Bhutan are used in a flexural and thermal-kinematic model to understand the sensitivity of predicted cooling ages to changes in fault kinematics, geometry and topography. We sequentially deform the cross section with ~10-km deformation steps and apply flexural loading and erosional unloading at each step to develop a high-resolution evolution of deformation, erosion, and burial over time.Comparison of model-predicted cooling ages to published thermochronometer data reveals that cooling ages are most 15 sensitive to (1) location and magnitude of fault ramps, (2) variable shortening rates between 68-6.4 mm/yr, and (3) timing and magnitude of out-of-sequence faulting. The predicted ages are less sensitive to (4) radiogenic heat production, and (5) estimates of topographic evolution. We propose a revised cross section geometry that separates one large ramp previously proposed for the modern decollement into two smaller ramps. The revised cross section results in an improved fit to observed ages, particularly young AFT ages (2-6 Ma) located north of the Main Central Thrust. 20