Stratospheric ozone change and related climate impacts over 1850–2100 as modelled by the ACCMIP ensemble

Iglesias‐Suarez, Fernando; Young, Paul; Wild, Oliver

doi:10.5194/acp-16-343-2016

Cited by 41 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 141 publications

(192 reference statements)

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“…Rap et al, 2015). Likewise, the zonal and annual mean stratospheric ozone agrees fairly well with satellite estimates in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and low latitudes (±30 DU), but larger deviations are found at mid-and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), a discrepancy also apparent in the models of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) (Iglesias-Suarez et al, 2016). The tropospheric ozone budget (production, loss, dry deposition, stratospheric input), burden and lifetime for the Cnt simulation (see Table 2 and Fig.…”

Section: Present-day Ozone Radiative Effects and Model Validationsupporting

confidence: 62%

“…The broad impacts of future climate change on the distribution of ozone are robust across a number of modelling studies and multi-model activities (Kawase et al, 2011;Young et al, 2013;Arblaster et al, 2014;Banerjee et al, 2016;Iglesias-Suarez et al, 2016). Stratospheric cooling leads to further ozone loss in the polar lower stratosphere (through enhanced heterogeneous ozone destruction) and ozone increases in the upper stratosphere (through reduced NO x abundances and HO x -catalysed ozone loss, and enhanced net oxygen chemistry) (Haigh and Pyle, 1982;Rosenfield et al, 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Iglesias‐Suarez¹

2018

Preprint

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Section: Present-day Ozone Radiative Effects and Model Validationsupporting

confidence: 62%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Iglesias‐Suarez¹

2018

Preprint

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“…A small but significant fraction of lightning-induced NO x emissions are converted into less photochemically active nitric acid (HNO 3 , via HO 2 + NO reaction), which can be removed through wet deposition or transported into the lower stratosphere (acting as a reservoir of NO x ; e.g. Jacob, 1999;Søvde et al, 2011). In addition, OH concentrations increase with LNO x emissions and the resultant lightning-produced ozone -i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Key drivers of ozone change and its radiative forcing over the 21st century

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Over the 21st century changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone are likely to have important consequences for the Earth's radiative balance. In this study, we investigate the radiative forcing from future ozone changes using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1), with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), and including fully coupled radiation and chemistry schemes. Using year 2100 conditions from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, we quantify the individual contributions to ozone radiative forcing of (1) climate change, (2) reduced concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODSs), and (3) methane increases. We calculate future ozone radiative forcings and their standard error (SE; associated with inter-annual variability of ozone) relative to year 2000 of (1) 33 ± 104 m Wm−2, (2) 163 ± 109 m Wm−2, and (3) 238 ± 113 m Wm−2 due to climate change, ODSs, and methane, respectively. Our best estimate of net ozone forcing in this set of simulations is 430 ± 130 m Wm−2 relative to year 2000 and 760 ± 230 m Wm−2 relative to year 1750, with the 95 % confidence interval given by ±30 %. We find that the overall long-term tropospheric ozone forcing from methane chemistry–climate feedbacks related to OH and methane lifetime is relatively small (46 m Wm−2). Ozone radiative forcing associated with climate change and stratospheric ozone recovery are robust with regard to background climate conditions, even though the ozone response is sensitive to both changes in atmospheric composition and climate. Changes in stratospheric-produced ozone account for ∼ 50 % of the overall radiative forcing for the 2000–2100 period in this set of simulations, highlighting the key role of the stratosphere in determining future ozone radiative forcing.

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“…The multitude of drivers and processes that affect atmospheric ozone abundances motivates the use of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) to explore changes in TCO 3 over the 21st century under the different RCP scenarios (e.g. Eyring et al, 2013a;Iglesias-Suarez et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diagnosing the radiative and chemical contributions to future changes in tropical column ozone with the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model

Keeble¹,

Bednarz²,

Banerjee³

et al. 2017

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. Chemical and dynamical drivers of trends in tropical total-column ozone (TCO3) for the recent past and future periods are explored using the UM-UKCA (Unified Model HadGEM3-A (Hewitt et al., 2011) coupled with the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol scheme) chemistry–climate model. A transient 1960–2100 simulation is analysed which follows the representative concentration pathway 6.0 (RCP6.0) emissions scenario for the future. Tropical averaged (10° S–10° N) TCO3 values decrease from the 1970s, reach a minimum around 2000 and return to their 1980 values around 2040, consistent with the use and emission of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), and their later controls under the Montreal Protocol. However, when the ozone column is subdivided into three partial columns (PCO3) that cover the upper stratosphere (PCO3US), lower stratosphere (PCO3LS) and troposphere (PCO3T), significant differences in the temporal behaviour of the partial columns are seen. Modelled PCO3T values under the RCP6.0 emissions scenario increase from 1960 to 2000 before remaining approximately constant throughout the 21st century. PCO3LS values decrease rapidly from 1960 to 2000 and remain constant from 2000 to 2050, before gradually decreasing further from 2050 to 2100 and never returning to their 1980s values. In contrast, PCO3US values decrease from 1960 to 2000, before increasing rapidly throughout the 21st century and returning to 1980s values by ∼  2020, and reach significantly higher values by 2100. Using a series of idealised UM-UKCA time-slice simulations with concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs) and halogenated ODS species set to either year 2000 or 2100 levels, we examine the main processes that drive the PCO3 responses in the three regions and assess how these processes change under different emission scenarios. Finally, we present a simple, linearised model to describe the future evolution of tropical stratospheric column ozone values based on terms representing time-dependent abundances of GHG and halogenated ODS.

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Stratospheric ozone change and related climate impacts over 1850–2100 as modelled by the ACCMIP ensemble

Abstract: Abstract. Stratospheric ozone and associated climate im-

Cited by 41 publications

References 141 publications

Final response

Final response

Key drivers of ozone change and its radiative forcing over the 21st century

Diagnosing the radiative and chemical contributions to future changes in tropical column ozone with the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model

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