Stratospheric ozone depletion and tropospheric ozone increases drive Southern Ocean interior warming

Liu, Wei; Hegglin, Michaela I.; Checa‐Garcia, Ramiro; Li, Shouwei; Gillett, Nathan P.; Lyu, Kewei; Zhang, Xuebin; Swart, Neil C.

doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01320-w

Cited by 33 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 51 publications

(56 reference statements)

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“…Stratospheric ozone-driven changes in the SAM are accompanied by changes in the Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell and associated sub-tropical jet (Jebri et al, 2020) and precipitation (Kang et al, 2011;Delworth and Zeng, 2014). Tropospheric ozone may also affect tropical expansion (Allen et al, 2012) and Southern Ocean warming (Liu et al, 2022).…”

Section: Potential Drivers Of Multi-annual To Decadal Changes In Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)

et al. 2022

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Section: Potential Drivers Of Multi-annual To Decadal Changes In Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)

et al. 2022

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“…However, current climate models have generally not been able to reliably reproduce observed changes in SST at high southern latitudes [ 98 ]. Recent modeling has provided evidence that changes in atmospheric ozone during the latter half of the twentieth century may be responsible for about one third of the observed warming in the upper 2000 m of the Southern Ocean (30°–60° S) [ 99 ]. About 60% of this contribution can be attributed to increases in tropospheric ozone—partly caused by increasing downward transport of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere and partly by enhanced production of ozone in the troposphere [ 100 ]—and the other 40% to stratospheric ozone depletion [ 99 ].…”

Section: Effects Of Recent Changes In Stratospheric Ozone On Climate ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Stratospheric ozone, UV radiation, and climate interactions

Bernhard

Bais

Aucamp³

et al. 2023

Photochem Photobiol Sci

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This assessment provides a comprehensive update of the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone and other factors (aerosols, surface reflectivity, solar activity, and climate) on the intensity of ultraviolet (UV) radiation at the Earth’s surface. The assessment is performed in the context of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer and its Amendments and Adjustments. Changes in UV radiation at low- and mid-latitudes (0–60°) during the last 25 years have generally been small (e.g., typically less than 4% per decade, increasing at some sites and decreasing at others) and were mostly driven by changes in cloud cover and atmospheric aerosol content, caused partly by climate change and partly by measures to control tropospheric pollution. Without the Montreal Protocol, erythemal (sunburning) UV irradiance at northern and southern latitudes of less than 50° would have increased by 10–20% between 1996 and 2020. For southern latitudes exceeding 50°, the UV Index (UVI) would have surged by between 25% (year-round at the southern tip of South America) and more than 100% (South Pole in spring). Variability of erythemal irradiance in Antarctica was very large during the last four years. In spring 2019, erythemal UV radiation was at the minimum of the historical (1991–2018) range at the South Pole, while near record-high values were observed in spring 2020, which were up to 80% above the historical mean. In the Arctic, some of the highest erythemal irradiances on record were measured in March and April 2020. For example in March 2020, the monthly average UVI over a site in the Canadian Arctic was up to 70% higher than the historical (2005–2019) average, often exceeding this mean by three standard deviations. Under the presumption that all countries will adhere to the Montreal Protocol in the future and that atmospheric aerosol concentrations remain constant, erythemal irradiance at mid-latitudes (30–60°) is projected to decrease between 2015 and 2090 by 2–5% in the north and by 4–6% in the south due to recovering ozone. Changes projected for the tropics are ≤ 3%. However, in industrial regions that are currently affected by air pollution, UV radiation will increase as measures to reduce air pollutants will gradually restore UV radiation intensities to those of a cleaner atmosphere. Since most substances controlled by the Montreal Protocol are also greenhouse gases, the phase-out of these substances may have avoided warming by 0.5–1.0 °C over mid-latitude regions of the continents, and by more than 1.0 °C in the Arctic; however, the uncertainty of these calculations is large. We also assess the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on climate, focusing on the poleward shift of climate zones, and discuss the role of the small Antarctic ozone hole in 2019 on the devastating “Black Summer” fires in Australia. Additional topics include the assessment of advances in measuring and modeling of UV radiation; methods for determining personal UV exposure; the effect of solar radiation management (stratospheric aerosol injections) on UV radiation relevant for plants; and possible revisions to the vitamin D action spectrum, which describes the wavelength dependence of the synthesis of previtamin D3 in human skin upon exposure to UV radiation. Graphical abstract

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“…Ozone has double-edged effects on human health: on the one hand, ozone in the upper atmosphere (stratospheric ozone) shields humans from harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation; on the other hand, ozone at ground level (tropospheric ozone) can trigger a variety of adverse health effects on human, sensitive vegetation and ecosystems (Weinhold, 2008;Liu et al, 2022a). The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) formulates regulations to help states reduce tropospheric ozone levels in outdoor air.…”

Section: Ozone Data Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Powerful Spatial Multiple Testing via Borrowing Neighboring Information

Linsui¹,

He²,

Zhang³

2022

Preprint

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Clustered effects are often encountered in multiple hypothesis testing of spatial signals. In this paper, we propose a new method, termed two-dimensional spatial multiple testing (2d-SMT) procedure, to control the false discovery rate (FDR) and improve the detection power by exploiting the spatial information encoded in neighboring observations. The proposed method provides a novel perspective of utilizing spatial information by gathering signal patterns and spatial dependence into an auxiliary statistic. 2d-SMT rejects the null when a primary statistic at the location of interest and the auxiliary statistic constructed based on nearby observations are greater than their corresponding thresholds. 2d-SMT can also be combined with different variants of the weighted BH procedures to improve the detection power further. A fast step-down algorithm is developed to accelerate the search for optimal thresholds in 2d-SMT. In theory, we establish the asymptotical FDR control of 2d-SMT under weak spatial dependence. Extensive numerical experiments demonstrate that the 2d-SMT method combined with various weighted BH procedures achieves the most competitive performance in FDR and power trade-off.

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Stratospheric ozone depletion and tropospheric ozone increases drive Southern Ocean interior warming

Cited by 33 publications

References 51 publications

Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)

Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)

Stratospheric ozone, UV radiation, and climate interactions

Powerful Spatial Multiple Testing via Borrowing Neighboring Information

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