Stress accumulation and increased seismic risk in eastern Turkey

Nalbant, S. S.; McCloskey, John; Steacy, S.; Barka, Aykut

doi:10.1016/s0012-821x(01)00592-1

Cited by 168 publications

(125 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The segment between Turkoglu (Kahramanmaras) and Celikhan (Adiyaman) was largely formed by the largest of the known historical earthquakes, which occurred in the study area on November 29, 1114 (M > 7.8), March 28, 1513 (M > 7.4), and March 2, 1893 (M > 7.1) (Fig. 5) (Ambraseys and Jackson, 1998;Nalbant et al, 2002). A deployment of a dense seismic network revealed that the seismic activity in Eastern Turkey is higher than previously observed and that the major events may originate in the lover crust (H > 20 km) .…”

Section: Seismicitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on the strike of the segments, the EAFZ should consist of six segments (Saroglu et al, 1992); however, Hempton et al (1981) defined only five segments based on geometry and behavior, while Barka and Kadinsky-Cade (1988), based on fault geometry and seismic activity, suggested that there may be 14 different segments along the EAFZ. The segment between Turkoglu and Celikhan has experienced earthquake events on March 2, 1893 (M = 7.1, 45 km), December 4, 1905 (M = 6.8, 38 km), and most probably on March 28, 1513 (M = 7.4, 103 km) (Ambraseys and Jackson, 1998;Nalbant et al, 2002).…”

Section: Geological Settingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Numbers outside the beach balls refer to the focal-mechanism labels given in Table 3. (Nalbant et al, 2002). Despite its high historical seismicity, the current low seismic activity (during the instrumental period) and several geomorphological and structural features (e.g., offset streams, young fault scarps, linear fault lines, triangular facets, and displaced alluvial deposits) indicate active strike-slip faulting along the EAFZ (Saroglu et al, 1992;Cetin et al, 2003).…”

Section: Seismicitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite its high historical seismicity, the current low seismic activity (during the instrumental period) and several geomorphological and structural features (e.g., offset streams, young fault scarps, linear fault lines, triangular facets, and displaced alluvial deposits) indicate active strike-slip faulting along the EAFZ (Saroglu et al, 1992;Cetin et al, 2003). In fact, based on the Coulomb stress-modelling technique, Nalbant et al (2002) indicated a potential hazard along the segment that was ruptured by the November 29, 1114 (M > 7.8) and March 28, 1513 (M > 7.4) earthquakes between Kahramanmaras and Malatya (Fig. 5).…”

Section: Seismicitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Kinematics of the East Anatolian Fault Zone between Turkoglu (Kahramanmaras) and Celikhan (Adiyaman), eastern Turkey

2006

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In this study we determined the stress regime acting along the East Anatolian Fault Zone between Turkoglu (Kahramanmaras) and Celikhan (Adiyaman), from the Neocene to present-day, based on the inversion of striations measured on faults and on the focal mechanisms of earthquakes having magnitudes greater than 5.0. The inversions yield a strike-slip stress regime with a reverse component (i.e., transpression) operative in the Neocene to present with a consistent N-to NW-trending σ 1 axis 156 ± 11• and an E-to NE-trending σ 3 axis, 67 ± 9• σ 3 , producing left-lateral motion along the East Anatolian Fault Zone. The inversions of focal mechanisms yield a strike-slip stress deviator characterized by an approximately N-S (N1• W)-trending σ 1 and an approximately E-W (N89• E)-trending σ 3 axis. Both the kinematic analysis and structural observations indicate that the stress regime operating in the study area has had a transpressional character, giving rise to the Mio-Pliocene compressive structures (reverse faults, thrusts and folds) observed in the study area. Field observations allow estimation of a Pliocene age for the strike-slip East Anatolian Fault Zone.

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Section: Seismicitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Geological Settingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Seismicitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Seismicitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Kinematics of the East Anatolian Fault Zone between Turkoglu (Kahramanmaras) and Celikhan (Adiyaman), eastern Turkey

2006

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“…King et al, 1994;Stein et al, 1997;Harris, 1998;Stein, 1999;Steacy et al, 2004, Steacy et al, 2005a. Because static stress changes caused by an earlier earthquake can promote or delay subsequent earthquakes along nearby faults, earthquake stress changes can be utilised in the interpretation of future seismic hazards or earthquake probabilities (Stein et al, 1997;Nalbant et al, 2002;Utkucu et al, 2003;Parsons, Fig. 2.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coulomb static stress changes before and after the 23 October 2011 Van, eastern Turkey, earthquake (<i>M</i><sub>W</sub>= 7.1): implications for the earthquake hazard mitigation

Utkucu

Durmuş

Yalçın

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Coulomb stress changes before and after the 23 October 2011 Van, eastern Turkey, earthquake have been analysed using available data related to the background and the aftershock seismicity and the source faults. The coseismic stress changes of the background seismicity had slightly promoted stress over the rupture plane of the 2011 Van earthquake, while it yielded a stress shadow over the Gürpı nar Fault which has been argued to have produced the 7 April 1646 Van earthquake. The stress shadow over the Gürp\\i nar fault has become more pronounced following the occurrence of the 2011 Van earthquake, meaning that the repetition of the 1646 Van earthquake has been further suppressed. Spatial distribution and source mechanisms of the 2011 Van earthquake's aftershocks have been utilised to define four clusters with regard to their relative location to the mainshock rupture. In addition, the aftershock sequence covers a much broader area toward the northeast. Correlations between the observed spatial patterns of the aftershocks and the coseismic Coulomb stress changes caused by the mainshock are determined by calculating the stress changes over both optimally oriented and specified fault planes. It is shown here that there is an apparent correlation between the mainshock stress changes and the observed spatial pattern of the aftershock occurrence, demonstrating the usefulness of the stress maps in constraining the likely locations of the upcoming aftershocks and mitigating earthquake hazard.

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Delayed Seismicity Rate Changes Controlled by Static Stress Transfer

et al. 2017

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On 15 June 2010, a Mw5.7 earthquake occurred near Ocotillo, California, in the Yuha Desert. This event was the largest aftershock of the 4 April 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor‐Cucapah (EMC) earthquake in this region. The EMC mainshock and subsequent Ocotillo aftershock provide an opportunity to test the Coulomb failure hypothesis (CFS). We explore the spatiotemporal correlation between seismicity rate changes and regions of positive and negative CFS change imparted by the Ocotillo event. Based on simple CFS calculations we divide the Yuha Desert into three subregions, one triggering zone and two stress shadow zones. We find the nominal triggering zone displays immediate triggering, one stress shadowed region experiences immediate quiescence, and the other nominal stress shadow undergoes an immediate rate increase followed by a delayed shutdown. We quantitatively model the spatiotemporal variation of earthquake rates by combining calculations of CFS change with the rate‐state earthquake rate formulation of Dieterich (1994), assuming that each subregion contains a mixture of nucleation sources that experienced a CFS change of differing signs. Our modeling reproduces the observations, including the observed delay in the stress shadow effect in the third region following the Ocotillo aftershock. The delayed shadow effect occurs because of intrinsic differences in the amplitude of the rate response to positive and negative stress changes and the time constants for return to background rates for the two populations. We find that rate‐state models of time‐dependent earthquake rates are in good agreement with the observed rates and thus explain the complex spatiotemporal patterns of seismicity.

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Stress accumulation and increased seismic risk in eastern Turkey

Cited by 168 publications

References 20 publications

Kinematics of the East Anatolian Fault Zone between Turkoglu (Kahramanmaras) and Celikhan (Adiyaman), eastern Turkey

Kinematics of the East Anatolian Fault Zone between Turkoglu (Kahramanmaras) and Celikhan (Adiyaman), eastern Turkey

Coulomb static stress changes before and after the 23 October 2011 Van, eastern Turkey, earthquake (<i>M</i><sub>W</sub>= 7.1): implications for the earthquake hazard mitigation

Delayed Seismicity Rate Changes Controlled by Static Stress Transfer

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Stress accumulation and increased seismic risk in eastern Turkey

Cited by 168 publications

References 20 publications

Kinematics of the East Anatolian Fault Zone between Turkoglu (Kahramanmaras) and Celikhan (Adiyaman), eastern Turkey

Kinematics of the East Anatolian Fault Zone between Turkoglu (Kahramanmaras) and Celikhan (Adiyaman), eastern Turkey

Coulomb static stress changes before and after the 23 October 2011 Van, eastern Turkey, earthquake (&lt;i&gt;M&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sub&gt;W&lt;/sub&gt;= 7.1): implications for the earthquake hazard mitigation

Delayed Seismicity Rate Changes Controlled by Static Stress Transfer

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Resources

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Coulomb static stress changes before and after the 23 October 2011 Van, eastern Turkey, earthquake (<i>M</i><sub>W</sub>= 7.1): implications for the earthquake hazard mitigation