With the introduction of 3D elastic-plastic deformation, and strip plastic flow factor concept, to analysis of the influence of strip local high points on the ridge-buckle behaviour in coiling process, an elastic-plastic coiling stress and ridge-buckle value model that can be used for online calculation was established. According to comparison and analysis of the influencing factors, uneven distribution of radial and circumferential stress caused by local waves is an important cause of strip ridge-buckle, and the ridge-buckle value increases with increases of local wave size, coil diameter and coiling tension, and significantly with decreases in the strip thickness. The influence of waves with different locations on the ridge-buckle value was analysed. Based on comparison of analysis results obtained by an elastic ridge-buckle value model and ANSYS FEM (finite element method), the accuracy and feasibility of this model have been proved, which will provide theoretical and model support for subsequent reduction of the ridge-buckle defects brought by local waves.