Structural Changes in Human Mobility Under the Zero-COVID Strategy in China

Abstract

Over the past two years, China has wrested domestic control of the COVID-19 pandemic through non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, the extent to which the pandemic has changed people’s travel behavior in the new normal under the zero-COVID policy is not yet clear. This study investigates the profound effects of the zero-COVID strategy on human mobility in 365 Chinese cities over time. Our results suggest the following: (1) Even between city pairs with no local cases, intercity mobility decreased by an average of 16%, whereas intra-city mobility increased by 9% compared with the pre-pandemic baseline. Long-distance travel decreased substantially, while trips below 100 km increased slightly. These new trends indicate a localized pattern which is presumably caused by the wide adoption of teleworking and virtual classes, as well as concerns about the safety and availability of public transportation. (2) Containment measures caused a considerably acute decline in intercity short-distance trips but exerted a markedly lasting effect on long-distance trips. (3) Cities with lower levels of urbanization, smaller population sizes, less labor force, and lower GDP and GDP per capita experienced greater reductions in mobility, which may be due to their insufficient management capabilities. (4) The Chinese government has adopted adaptive measures to contain outbreaks. Stricter and more timely responses led to faster recoveries in the second half of 2021 compared with the first half. Inter- and intra-city mobility decreased by 41% and 26%, respectively, within the first 2 weeks of an outbreak, and it took 6-7 weeks to return to pre-outbreak levels.