Structural Changes in the Export of Mechanical Engineering of Ukraine Under the Impact of Foreign Economic Policy Transformation

Abstract

The objective of this article is to evaluate the structural changes that have occurred in the export of mechanical engineering from Ukraine. These changes have been influenced by significant transformations in the country's foreign economic policy, which have been primarily caused by a shift in the country's foreign policy as a result of military aggression from Russia, which has been a leading foreign trade partner for a considerable period of time. Methodology. The study is based on the authors' previous works, which are devoted to the study of the features of the export-oriented development of the country and the industry. In particular, the studies examine the strengthening of the innovative component in the export potential and the formation of mechanisms and strategies for ensuring the development of exports on a high-tech basis. The methodological basis of this work was also formed by the scientific studies of leading Ukrainian and foreign researchers devoted to the development of the export of mechanical engineering, problems and prospects of the industry in the implementation of foreign economic activity. In order to calculate structural changes in exports, a generalised methodology has been developed based on the systematisation of scientific papers that outline different approaches to assessing structural changes and disproportions. The main content of the proposed methodology is to form a system of indicators that allow for a comprehensive assessment of structural changes in the exports of a particular industry. To calculate and test the methodology, open statistical data on exports of mechanical engineering products were used. Results. The research findings indicated that, despite the pivotal role of the mechanical engineering sector in the national economy, the sector's performance in Ukraine has exhibited a discernible negative trajectory in terms of overall production and sales volumes, export volumes, and the patterns of expansion observed in export operations. In Ukraine, the contribution of mechanical engineering to the national economy is 8%, whereas in industrialised countries, this figure ranges between 30 and 50%. The long-term orientation of mechanical engineering enterprises towards the conventional Russian market has not provided the impetus for the innovative development of such enterprises. Objective changes in Ukraine's foreign economic policy related to Russia's military invasion have created a field of uncertainty for mechanical engineering companies. The search for partners in new foreign markets was rather slow and not always effective. All this led to structural changes in the export of mechanical engineering products. Calculations have shown the existence of imbalances in the structure of exports of mechanical engineering products. In particular, for a long time there was a predominance of heavy engineering products. Conversely, the calculations demonstrated that products with competitive advantages in foreign markets account for a relatively minor proportion of exports. This provides a rationale for a shift in strategy with regard to the expansion of exports in the mechanical engineering sector, with a focus on the increased export of competitive high-tech products. Practical implications. A complex of indicators was employed to calculate the structural changes in the export of mechanical engineering. This enabled the identification of those priority groups of mechanical engineering products with the greatest export potential. Value / Originality. The developed methodological approach, which integrates a set of indicators for the analysis of structural changes in exports, provides a foundation for the formulation of management decisions and the development of export strategies for the advancement of mechanical engineering enterprises within the context of an export-oriented economic model.