Structural Conditions and the Propensity for Regional Integration

Abstract

This paper proposes a theory for regional integration based on structural conditions. By applying power transition theory, we are able to account for and anticipate not only th; tendency for pairs of countries to participate in integration, but the likely intensity of such integration as well. We find that integration is most likely when there is an asymmetric distribution of power between countries and when they are jointly satisfied after a power transition has occurred. These results hold even after controlling for level of development and trade flows. We test this theory on all politically relevant dyads between 1950 and 1996 using a novel method to measure the level of regional integration.We illustrate the empirical findings through simulations that track the developments leading to Europe's Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).

Does North America Have the Right Stuff? An Analysis of Compatibility and the Potential Deepening of North American Integration

“…The theory stresses the satisfaction with these preferences and the dynamics of a power transition that occurs when a subordinate power approaches and exceeds the capabilities of the preponderant power. Efird and Genna (2002) extend the theory and argue that regional integration is likely to develop after a power transition between two satisfied states because the formerly less powerful country has a vital interest in deepening the arrangements that it believes contributed to its rise. Genna and Hiroi (2004, 2005, 2007) modified the theory by stressing the impact of trade dependence.…”

“…The operationalization of regional integration is a systematic coding so that the analysis can distinguish varying levels while still comparing similar attributes. This is done by using a multidimensional measurement referred to as the integration achievement score (IAS), which was first developed by Hufbauer and Schott (1994) and later refined and applied in Efird and Genna (2002; see also Efird, Genna, and Kugler 2003; Feng and Genna 2003; Genna and Hiroi 2004). The calculation of the IAS in Hufbauer and Schott's work involves a smaller number of regional integration organizations for a single year, 1994.…”

Consequences of Reversing the European Union Integration

“…He applied expected utility calculations to estimate the best times for war between states but measured their power as being aug-FIG 2. Note that whereas this model has been extensively applied in the study of conflicts (Organski and Kugler 1980;Kugler and Lemke 1996;Tammen et al 2000), it also has empirically verified direct implications on regional integration (Efird and Genna 2002;Efird et al 2003;Feng and Genna 2003;Genna and Hiroi 2004;Yesilada et al 2006). Thus, for Kim, "parity" does not refer strictly to the calculations of relative power between states A and B.…”

Russian Federalism and Post-Soviet Integration: Divergence of Development Paths

“…13 For international unions the realist approach, like economics, considers asymmetric gains from exchange a factor hindering cooperation (Waltz, 1979), though Pedersen (2002) expands the analysis to explain the institutionalized regional integration as a "cooperative hegemony". Efird and Genna (2002) extend the power transition theory to account for the processes of regional integration and claim that regional integration is more likely after power transition (i.e. increase of power of subordinate partner) if both partners are jointly satisfied with the status quo.…”