Structural-Demographic Analysis of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1912) Collapse in China

Abstract

This paper analyzes the collapse of the Qing dynasty (1644–1912) through the lens of the Structural Demographic Theory (SDT), a general framework for understanding the drivers of socio-political instability in state-level societies. Although a number of competing ideas for the collapse have been proposed, none provide a comprehensive explanation that incorporates the interaction of all the multiple drivers involved. We argue that the four-fold population explosion during the 19th century, the competition for a stagnant number of elite positions, and increasing state fiscal stress combined to produce an increasingly disgruntled populace and elite, leading to significant internal rebellions. We find that while neither the ecological disasters nor the foreign incursions witnessed during the 19th century were sufficient on their own to bring down the Qing, when coupled with the rising internal socio-political stresses, they produced a rapid succession of triggering events that culminated in the Qing collapse.

Empirically Testing and Refining Structural Demographic Theory: A Methodological Guide

“…For instance, our recent work on the collapse of the Qing Dynasty in China argues that PSI is a better advance predictor of unrest and internal warfare throughout the period than other drivers that have been proposed in previous scholarship, notably exogenous drivers such as ecological shocks, global economic developments (i.e. scarcity in silver availability), and interference of external states (Orlandi et al 2023). Additional theories suggesting other drivers of instability and conflict need to be explored in a similar manner and on a larger number of crises.…”

“…Another notable example is Turchin's study of the dynamics of unrest, crisis -and recovery -in the US from the 18 th century to the present (Turchin 2016(Turchin , 2023. The authors of this piece and colleagues are currently engaged in exploring the dynamics of crisis in a number of additional historical societies (Hoyer et al Forthcoming;Orlandi et al 2023) 4 .…”

“…Instead, the basic properties are measured by a variety of indicators, which depend on the structure of the societies under investigation. For instance, a study of Qing China, a largely agrarian, bureaucratic empire, measured EMP by the number of people who P a g e | 8 sought and held the degrees needed for top-level administrative positions, compared to the number of spots available (Orlandi et al 2023), while another study on the modern USA measured it in part by the number of people attaining law degrees from top universities (Turchin 2016).…”

Navigating Polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate

“…If societal response to environmental stressors is complex and characterized by widely divergent reactions to similar forces, what, then, are the factors that raise or lower vulnerability, in the past as well as today? Building on insights from structural demographic theory (SDT), ongoing research by the Seshat team and other colleagues (29,(31)(32)(33)(34) demonstrates that societal pressure rises with the combination of three central structural stressors: popular immiseration, namely declining well-being and living standards for the majority population; the elite overproduction and conflict that arises when a growing number of wealthy and powerful citizens along with aspirant elites vie for limited economic, political, and social prestige positions; and state fiscal distress and declining state function as resources are constrained and frustration at poor conditions erodes state legitimacy and capacity. These pressures tend to build over time due to rising population and unequal distribution of wealth and opportunity, which depresses living standards among large segments of the population and raises the stakes of intra-elite competition.…”

“…A recent analysis of the Qing, the last Chinese imperial dynasty, reveals clearly how social pressures mediate the impact of environmental forces (34). The Qing were a large, economically productive, long-lived regime whose rule stretched from the end of the Ming Dynasty in 1644 until the Republican Revolution in 1911 CE.…”