Nanocrystalline ceria exhibits significant redox activity and oxygen storage capacity. Any factor affecting its morphology can tune such activities. Strain is a promising method for controlling particle morphology, whether as core@shell structures, supported nanoparticles, or nanograins in nanocrystalline ceria. A key challenge is to define routes of controlling strain to enhance the expression of more active morphologies and to maintain their shape during the lifespan of the particle. Here, we demonstrate a computational route to gain insights into the strain effects on particle morphology. We use density functional theory to predict surface composition and particle morphology of strained ceria surfaces, as a function of environmental conditions of temperature and partial pressure of water. We find that adsorbed molecular water is not sufficient to shift stability and as such under all compressive and tensile strains studied, the most stable particle is of octahedral shape, similarly to the unstrained case. When dissociative water is involved at the surfaces of the particle, then the most stable particle morphology changes under high water coverage and tensile strain to cuboidal or truncated cuboidal shapes. This shift in shape is due to strain effects that affect the strength of water adsorption.