Structured decision analysis informed by traditional ecological knowledge as a tool to strengthen subsistence systems in a changing Arctic

Abstract

Climate change is impacting the subsistence livelihoods of many indigenous communities in the Arctic. We describe how structured decision analysis (SDA), informed by traditional ecological knowledge, can be used to understand the mechanisms of how climate change influences subsistence species and their harvest, and to build upon existing adaptive strategies and decision-making processes. In the Iñupiat community of Wainwright, Alaska, we test SDA as a potential framework by which vulnerabilities of subsistence systems can be identified and climate change adaptations can be prioritized. Over the course of five workshops, participants identified issues of concern, assessed the benefits and trade-offs of different strategies to enhance the safety of subsistence activities, identified factors influencing key subsistence species and their accessibility, and assessed the dependence of animals and their harvest on sea ice. Furthermore, we asked workshop participants to assess whether subsistence resources have increased, decreased, or remained stable over the past decade. Declining caribou populations and unsafe ice conditions for hunters were of particular concern in Wainwright. Participants identified high priority safety strategies such as a new docking facility, safety workshops, a hunter meeting place, and search and rescue boats. Because of its coastal location on a lagoon at the mouth of a river, Wainwright has a highly diverse subsistence system that may in part buffer the negative effects of climate change. Furthermore, most species or groups harvested in Wainwright were assessed as stable or increasing. Nevertheless, of the five most important subsistence species in Wainwright, one experienced recent population declines (caribou) and the harvest of three others depends on the presence of thick, reliable shorefast ice. We propose that SDA can be a useful tool to assess the vulnerability of subsistence systems to climate change, and can be used to prioritize strategies to adapt to climate change.

“We Never Get Stuck:” A Collaborative Analysis of Change and Coastal Community Subsistence Practices in the Northern Bering and Chukchi Seas, Alaska

“…A summary of examples of changes and effects is presented in Table 1. Huntington et al, 1999Huntington et al, , 2013Huntington et al, , 2017aAshjian et al, 2010;Hanson et al, 2013;Oceana and Kawerak, 2014;discussions Noongwook et al, 2007Oceana and Kawerak, 2014;discussions Huntington et al, 2017aSlats et al, 2019 Raymond-Yakoubian, 2013; Raymond-Yakoubian and Raymond-Yakoubian, 2015 Christie et al, 2018Carothers et al, 2013Huntington et al, 2017bHuntington et al, 1999Kawerak, 2013aHall, 1971Burch, 1985;Fienup-Riordan et al, 2013;Raymond-Yakoubian, 2013;Raymond-Yakoubian, 2015 Raymond-Yakoubian et al, 2014;Huntington et al, 2017a March 2017 discussions Huntington, 1992;Noongwook, 2018Napoleon, 1996Raymond-Yakoubian, 2019Kruse, 1991Galginaitis, 2013Raymond-Yakoubian, 2019 In Table 2, we present examples of several categories of response and potential limits to the effectiveness of a given strategy. Broadly, the strategies fall into two categories: specific actions that can be taken, such as hunting bowhead whales in fall as well as spring, and general approaches that promote problem-solving and innovation, such as persistence and a willingness to experiment.…”

Compensating Indigenous social and cultural losses: a community-based multiple-attribute approach

“…Together, these approaches have been used to support a wide variety of challenging valuation contexts that require identifying the impacted values, generating and comparing different alternatives, and/or establishing monetary equivalents for intangible values (Gregory et al 2012, Shepherd et al 2015. Most relevant are cases when methods from the decision sciences have been applied in Indigenous communities to estimate cultural, social, and health impacts stemming from petroleum developments, flooding of traditional territory by dams, climate change, or pipeline construction (Christie et al 2018, Failing et al 2013, Gregory and Trousdale 2009.…”

Adaptive capacity of Arctic communities in the context of climate change and shipping growth: A review of Russian and Western literature

“…The majority of these studies were published during the past decade and connect shipping development to changing ice conditions (e.g. Andrachuk & Smit, 2012;Christie, Hollmen, Huntington, & Lovvorn, 2018;Ford & Goldhar, 2012) as well as industrial activities, including tourism (e.g. Andrachuk & Smit, 2012;Olsen & Nenasheva, 2018).…”

“…Shipping in this context is described as an "economic opportunity" of climate change (Ford et al, 2018;Ford & Goldhar, 2012) with the potential to influence local economies of northern settlements (Christie et al, 2018), contribute to local value creation (Olsen & Nenasheva, 2018) and provide employment opportunities (Angell & Stokke, 2014). However, few studies have examined Polar Record these opportunities and how they should be managed .…”

“…The same study suggests that overcrowding may be perceived as a source of disturbance, and increased pressure on existing building and transport infrastructure and waste facilities that were originally designed to cover basic community needs (ibid.) Shipping can also have negative impacts on Arctic natural environments and sensitive ecosystems (Ford et al, 2018;O'Brien et al, 2006) including those inhabited by marine mammals (Bunce et al, 2016;Christie et al, 2018). refers to Cameron (2012) and argue that "shipping and resource development are likely to be major factors affecting vulnerability and adaptation in Arctic communities."…”