Importance: The factors influencing medical student clinical specialty choice have important implications for the future composition of the US physician workforce. The objective of this study was to determine the career net present values of US medical students' clinical specialty choices and identify any relationships between a specialty's net present value and competitiveness of admissions as measured by US Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 1 scores.
Methods: Net present values were calculated by using results of the 2019 Doximity Physician Compensation report, a survey of 90,000 physicians. Mean USMLE Step 1 scores for matched US allopathic seniors in the 2018 National Resident Matching Program were used as a measure of clinical specialties' competitiveness of admissions. We calculated a composite measure of net present value and annual work-hours by dividing each specialty's net present value by the reported average number of hours worked per year.
Results: In our analysis, orthopedic surgery had the highest net present value ($10,308,868), whereas family medicine had the lowest net present value ($5,274,546). Dermatology and plastic surgery had the highest mean USMLE Step 1 scores (249 for both), whereas family medicine had the lowest (220). Clinical specialties' net present values were positively associated with mean USMLE Step 1 scores (Pearson's r=0.82; p<.001).
Conclusion and Relevance: In this study, we describe associations suggesting that medical students choose clinical specialties as rational economic agents and that these decisions are mediated by USMLE Step 1 scores. This underscores the importance of titrating and aligning economic incentives to improve the allocation of medical students into clinical specialties.