Studies in medical education: Career choice consistency of medical students

Donovan, John C.; Salzman, Leonard F.; Allen, Peter Z.

doi:10.1016/0002-9378(72)90312-2

Cited by 11 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Our results are consistent with studies suggesting that year 2 career decisions are more predictive than those expressed earlier [ 3 , 7 , 11 , 12 ]. Nevertheless, specialty-specific learning for CUSOM year 2 students would have to anticipate substantial numbers of dropouts and provide support accordingly.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…We used positive and negative predictive value to examine the ability of CUSOM students to predict postgraduate residency training. Most previous data focus on predictions by first-year students [ 3 , 5 – 8 , 10 ] with fewer data for second-year [ 3 , 7 , 9 , 11 , 12 ] and virtually none for third-year. We are to our knowledge the first to conduct a systematic examination of the ability of specialty choices at the end of year 3 to predict postgraduate residency training.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent data from the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) show that approximately one-quarter of specialties identified on the AAMC Graduation Questionnaire (GQ) are the same as those chosen by the same students on the Matriculating Student Questionnaire (MSQ) [ 10 ]. Fewer studies have examined the accuracy of second-year choices [ 3 , 7 , 9 , 11 , 12 ]. Data from the third year are rare.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Positive predictive value of medical student specialty choices

et al. 2018

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BackgroundAlthough medical school programs oriented toward postgraduate specialty training have the potential to reduce the duration and cost of medical school for US medical students, success depends on the ability of students to predict their postgraduate specialties. It is clear that first-year choices are poorly predictive, but it is not known when predictions become sufficiently reliable to support specialty-oriented learning programs. We therefore examined the predictive value of specialty preferences expressed at the ends of the first, second and third years of medical school and asked whether concurrent expressions of confidence in choices improved predictive ability. We also investigated the possibility that discrepancies between predicted and actual postgraduate specialty training were related to scores on an examination of knowledge in basic biomedical sciences required for US medical school graduation (the United States Medical Licensing Examination (USLME) Step 1 examination).MethodWe calculated positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV, respectively) for specialty choices and the sensitivity and specificity of asking for choices for 634 University of Colorado School of Medicine students who trained in 23 accredited residencies from 2011 through 2015. We examined the effect of confidence in first choices in 609 students, and in 334 students, sought an association between USMLE Step 1 scores and switching from postgraduate training specialties predicted at the end of year 2.ResultsThe PPV of first choices improved from years 1 through 3. NPV was high throughout. PPVs of year 3 first choices ranged from 79% in Anesthesiology to 95% in Psychiatry. Expressions of confidence in first choices did not improve PPV. Sensitivity of asking for first choices increased with time; specificity was consistently high. USLME Step 1 scores were higher for students who ultimately trained in specialties more competitive than first-choice specialties at the end of year 2.ConclusionsSpecialty-oriented learning programs during medical school must accommodate students who change career plans. The PPV of specialty first choices improves each year, but even year 3 predictions can be inaccurate with potential loss of students from specialty-specific programs. USMLE Step 1 scores appeared to affect career plans expressed at the end of year 2.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12909-018-1138-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Positive predictive value of medical student specialty choices

et al. 2018

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“…Investigations of medical students suggest that 40-50% make postgraduate career choices by the end of the second year of medical school, which has traditionally been before the clinical rotations begin. [10][11][12] In one study, about 20% of medical students had decided on a specialty at medical school orientation, 45% by the end of second year, 60% by the end of third year, and about 90% by the middle of the final year. 10 However, existing research has not addressed the question of when post-residency career decisions are made by residents.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%