“…Collective and individual equipoise. Nineteen articles regarded the existence of collective equipoise as sufficient justification for a trial, that is, a trial is ethical if experts in general, rather than the particular clinician (or clinician-patient pair) are equipoised (Alderson, 1996;Chipman, 1993;Collins et al, 1992;de Groot and Kennedy, 1995;Eichler, 1995;Emrich and Sedrank, 1996;Freedman, 1987;Gillett, 1994;Johnson and Lilford, 1991;Kadane, 1986Kadane, , 1996Passamani, 1991;Pfeffer, 1993;Schaffner, 1996;Sedrank, 1996;Shimm and Spece, 1983;Tannsjo, 1994;Weymuller, 1996). This willingness to discredit individual 'hunches' in favour of the collective equipoise is buttressed by evidence which indicates that innovative therapies that are brought to the stage of an RCT are 'successful' only half of the time (Gilbert et al, 1977) and that people who hazard, even educated, 'guesses' are frequently much further off the mark than they expect to be (Albert and Raiffa, 1969).…”