Study of applicability of the methods of medium and long term load forecasting in new economy normal state

Abstract

Medium and long term load forecasting is important for power system planning and construction. Affected by the New Economy normal and other relevant factors, various regions of China have entered a new period of economic development mode and industrial structure changing. Load structure and load growth pattern, to a certain extent, has changed, which undoubtedly makes the long-term load forecasting more complex and uncertain. To study the models and methods of Medium and long term load forecasting in the market environment is more important. This paper deeply analyzes the new economy normal state's features, refines the factors which can properly characterize the new normal state's changing, and applies them to the medium and long term load forecasting's models; in accordance with the actual data of one province, uses a variety of methods and models to calculate and compare the predictions, and gets the applicability of long-term load forecasting model in new economy normal state.

The Economy and Policy Incorporated Computing System for Social Energy and Power Consumption Analysis

“…However, current research on the effect of policy implementation is mostly based on qualitative analyses, and research on quantitative measurement of energy policy is still lacking. Existing methods [6][7][8] do not take into account the complex non-linear relationship between electricity consumption and policy factors; therefore, they cannot precisely quantify the impact of policy macro-control on regional electricity consumption.…”