Study of COVID-19 epidemiological evolution in India with a multi-wave SIR model

Abstract

The global pandemic due to the outbreak of COVID-19 ravages the whole world for more than two years in which all the countries are suffering a lot since December 2019. In order to control this ongoing waves of epidemiological infections, attempts have been made to understand the dynamics of this pandemic in deterministic approach with the help of several mathematical models. In this article characteristics of a multi-wave SIR model have been studied which successfully explains the features of this pandemic waves in India. Stability of this model has been studied by identifying the equilibrium points as well as by finding the eigen values of the corresponding Jacobian matrices. Complex eigen values are found which ultimately give rise to the oscillatory solutions for the three categories of populations, say, susceptible, infected and removed. In this model, a finite probability of the recovered people for becoming susceptible again is introduced which eventually lead to the oscillatory solution in other words. The set of differential equations has been solved numerically in order to obtain the variation for numbers of susceptible, infected and removed people with time. In this phenomenological study, finally an additional modification is made in order to explain the aperiodic oscillation which is found necessary to capture the feature of epidemiological waves particularly in India.

Mathematical modeling and forecasting of the spread of the COVID-19: Multiwave model of epidemic development in the UK

“…Они моделировали одну волну распространения заболевания. За последний год появились исследования, использующие принцип многоволнового развития эпидемии [18][19][20], в том числе учитывающие фактор различной социальной реакции населения [20] и влияние перекрестного иммунитета между штаммами [19]. Однако модели, представленные в этих работах, являются так же модификациями SIR.…”

Plausible Explanation for the Third COVID-19 Wave in India and Its Implications

“…It also raised apprehensions of future possible waves, similar to those observed in other countries. This led to several modelling studies that aimed to forecast possible third and fourth waves for India (Mandal, Arinaminpathy, Bhargava, & Panda, 2021;Rajeshbhai, Dhar, & Shalabh, 2022;Agrawal, Kanitkar, & Vidyasagar, 2021;Mohan et al, 2022;Ghosh & Ghosh, 2022). Although some of these studies were called into question during the time (Sharma, 2021;Business Today, 2022), the third wave did appear at the end of December 2021 (WHO), driven primarily by the Omicron (B1.1.529) variant (Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants).…”