Study of Fitch Rating`s Response to Covid-19 by Logical Analysis of Data

Abstract

Credit ratings, represent the creditworthiness of countries and financial organizations that nowadays due to the corona virus crisis hit the world is being threatened to be downgraded. This study uses Logical Analysis of Data to analyze the Fitch rating agency response to Covid-19. Three varied parts of variables, composed of the significant economic and social factors, pandemic -related variables and pre-credit rating (2019) are under survey. The time interval of the study is 2019-2020. The output of the research in the form of the decision trees shows the selected patterns of each newly published Fitch rating in July of 2020. The consequences of the research in training and test sets by 100% and 80% matched cases, respectively shed light on the robust results of explored patterns. Surveying on Fitch`s response in this span showed that pandemic-related variables mostly have an impact on “B” classes and they were not significant in “investment grades” (AAA-BBBP), whereas, 2019`s credit rating may be a strong factor to forecast next ratings just in normal state of affairs, nevertheless, selected well-built economic and social factors described the hidden structure of Fitch Agency in the optimum way during pandemic also.