Study on Dynamic Probability and Quantitative Risk Calculation Method of Domino Accident in Pool Fire in Chemical Storage Tank Area

Abstract

The domino event caused by fire is one of the common accidents in hydrocarbon storage tank farms, which further expands the severity and scope of the accident. Due to the different failure sequence of the storage tanks in a domino accident, the radiant heat generated by the failed storage tank to the target tank is different. Based on the influence of this synergistic effect, this study combined the Monte Carlo algorithm and FSEM, and proposed a fast real-time probability calculation method for a fire domino accident in a storage tank area, for the first time. This method uses the Monte Carlo algorithm to simulate all accident scenarios, and obtains the evolution of multiple escalation fire domino accidents under the synergistic effect according to FSEM, and then calculates the real-time failure probability and risk. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the accident propagation path, this method avoids the problem of a large amount of calculation, and is conducive to the rapid and effective analysis of the fire risk in a storage tank area and the formulation of corresponding risk reduction measures. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method were proved by a case study.

A model study of the effect of explosion fragment size on ejection hazard

“…These losses were not directly caused by the initial accident but were instead a result of a series of chain reactions that multiplied the scope and harm of the explosion. Consequently, the study of the domino effect [2,3] has gained widespread attention. The initial accident, which can be caused by events such as fire or explosion, may occur due to the leakage of the storage tank or due to external force.…”

Failure Propagation Prediction of Complex Electromechanical Systems Based on Interdependence

“…A large amount of the literature has studied the construction of failure modes [14][15][16] and failure chains [8,[17][18][19][20][21][22]. Zhu et al [14] established a full-stage crack growth rate model of the TBM cutter head through data and main failure modes.…”

“…Bao et al [19] discussed an integrated simulation approach to simulate the cascading failure propagation process of integrated electricity and natural gas systems (IEGSs). Su et al [20] proposed a fast real-time probability calculation method for domino fire accidents in storage tank areas. A fault tree model of a blocked transverse drainage pipe in the Chongqing subway tunnel was constructed [21].…”

“…Wang Pengjun et al [22] studied the application of the equipment-status-assessment method based on deep learning in PHM scenarios. After understanding the process of failure propagation, it is also very important to calculate the failure propagation probability to ensure the safe operation of the system [1,8,13,18,20,21].…”