Vegetation and groundwater are important components of the ecological environment of oases in desert hinterlands and their relationship is crucial to ecosystem stability. In this study, Sentinel-2 data for 2016–2022 and measured groundwater burial depths were analysed for the Dariyabui Oasis in the hinterland of the Taklamakan Desert. The spatial and temporal changes in vegetation and groundwater burial depth from 2019 to 2022 were analysed based on the image–element dichotomous model of the normalised difference vegetation index, utilising the inverse distance weight interpolation method, cubic curve regression, image–element difference, slope trend analysis, and the Markov transfer matrix for determining the temporal and spatial response law between the two. Finally, the threshold value of groundwater burial depth for different vegetation cover types was clarified. The fractional vegetation cover of the Dariyabui Oasis showed a slight increase from 2016 to 2022. Vegetation in the northwest and southeast of the oasis increased, whereas vegetation decreased in the mid-north and northeast regions; 5.14% of the total area experienced increased coverage, whereas 3.35% experienced decreased coverage. The depth of groundwater in the oasis showed a pattern of gradual increase from the entrance to the end of the oasis, that is, south to north. The depth of groundwater in the oasis from 2019 to 2022 was stable, with a 4-year average depth of 4.1069 m and a maximum fluctuation of 0.4560 m. The interannual changes in the groundwater level showed an increasing trend in January–April, while groundwater levels showed a decreasing trend in May–July and August–October and remained constant in June–July and October–December. Oasis vegetation cover showed a negative correlation with groundwater depth, with a depth interval for the highest low-cover vegetation distribution of 3–6 m, and an ultimate depth threshold of 7 m. The depth interval with the highest medium-cover vegetation distribution was 3–4 m, that with the highest high-cover distribution was 2–4 m, and the ultimate depth threshold was 6 m. The depth of the oasis ranged from 3 to 6 m and the ultimate depth threshold was 7 m.