Study on the Dynamic Characteristics of an Eastward-offshore Mesoscale Vortex along the Meiyu-Baiu Front

Yu, Fei; Fu, Shenming; Zhao, Shutao; Sun, Jie

doi:10.1080/16742834.2012.11447016

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…In the lower troposphere, many studies have examined the mesoscale structure of the Meiyu front [18]. These studies have generally presented the Meiyu front as a quasi-stationary boundary defined by a wind shear line at 850 hPa that is associated with a robust gradient in 700 hPa equivalent potential temperatures.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Forecast Performance of the Meiyu Front Rainbelt Position: A Case Study of the 30 June to 4 July 2016 Extreme Rainfall Event

Bowley

Zhang

2019

Atmosphere

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An impactful and poorly forecasted heavy rainfall event was observed in association with the Meiyu front over the Yangtze River valley of China from 30 June–4 July 2016. Operational global numerical weather prediction models for almost all forecast lead times beyond 24 h incorrectly forecasted the location and intensity of the precipitation associated with this event. This study presents the first examination of this poleward bias in the operational models for the Meiyu front, which has been frequently noted by meteorologists at the Chinese Meteorological Administration, and explores areas of forecast error and uncertainty in the prediction of the position of the primary frontal rainbelt that is crucial to the placement and intensity of the heavy rainfall. A new zonal mean maximum accumulated precipitation index is introduced and utilized to identify members in the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) that either perform well or perform poorly in forecasting the location of the Meiyu front. Using this new precipitation metric, five-member subgroups representing the EPS members that were most accurate and those that incorrectly displace the Meiyu front the furthest north were identified. An analysis of composite mean fields for the EPS subgroups and the correlation between the rain band placement and the 500 hPa heights was performed for several EPS model runs. We showed that a successful prediction of the location of the Meiyu front rainbelt position by the EPS is most sensitive to the intensity of the 500 hPa trough located over eastern China for the event. The ensemble members that had the largest northward error in the location of the rain band were found to have a more intense 500 hPa trough than the members that more accurately predicted the rainbelt. The more intense upper level trough was found to have enhanced the lower tropospheric southerly flow equatorward of the front and led to a less zonal-oriented Meiyu front, resulting in a northward displacement of both the rainbelt and the regions of more intense precipitation rates. Finally, an examination of the evolution of the differences between the subgroups shows that the primary differences in 500 hPa intensity propagate in-phase with the 500 hPa trough. We show that it is the intensity of the trough, rather than the rate of propagation, that is the most important source of forecast dissimilarities between the successful and failed forecasts.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Forecast Performance of the Meiyu Front Rainbelt Position: A Case Study of the 30 June to 4 July 2016 Extreme Rainfall Event

Bowley

Zhang

2019

Atmosphere

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“…The relatively stable quasi-stationary front makes the Meiyu precipitation to exhibit continuous characteristics, often accompanied by heavy rainfall and floods. Meiyu is an important part of the East Asian monsoon system (e.g., Huang et al, 2011;Yu et al, 2015;Zheng et al, 2013) and the rainfall during the Meiyu period accounts for about 45% of the total summer rainfall (e.g., Ding & Chan, 2005). The amount of the Meiyu precipitation directly affects the flood and drought conditions in the Jianghuai Basin and influences the economic and social production of the region (e.g., Ding et al, 2020).A large portion of Meiyu rain belt is located over the ocean, limiting its direct observation.…”

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Characteristics of Meiyu Seen From Multiple Observational Analyses and Reanalyses

Tong

Zheng

2021

Earth and Space Science

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• Characteristics of Meiyu belt in East Asia were systematically examined using two analyses and four reanalysis datasets • A gradual northward movement of the Meiyu belt is observed with two large precipitation centers in southern Japan and in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River • It is recommended that TRMM and MERRA2 reanalysis be used for investigating the Meiyu precipitation system and its large-scale conditions Accepted Article This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as

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Investigation of the mei-yu front using a new deformation frontogenesis function

Gao

2015

Adv. Atmos. Sci.

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Study on the Dynamic Characteristics of an Eastward-offshore Mesoscale Vortex along the Meiyu-Baiu Front

Cited by 5 publications

References 7 publications

Evaluating the Forecast Performance of the Meiyu Front Rainbelt Position: A Case Study of the 30 June to 4 July 2016 Extreme Rainfall Event

Evaluating the Forecast Performance of the Meiyu Front Rainbelt Position: A Case Study of the 30 June to 4 July 2016 Extreme Rainfall Event

Characteristics of Meiyu Seen From Multiple Observational Analyses and Reanalyses

Investigation of the mei-yu front using a new deformation frontogenesis function

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