Study on the Relationship between Economic Growth of Animal Husbandry and Carbon Emission Based on Logarithmic Average Index Method and Decoupling Model: A Case Study of Heilongjiang Province

Abstract

With the establishment of the action plan for the goal of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”, how to achieve high-quality agricultural development, help implement the construction of the green Longjiang River, reduce agricultural carbon emissions, and increase the level of agricultural carbon sink is a key problem that must be solved for Heilongjiang Province to achieve the goal of “double carbon”. This article uses the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method to estimate the carbon emissions of animal husbandry in Heilongjiang Province and 13 cities from 2000 to 2020. By constructing the Tapio decoupling model, Kaya identity, and the LMDI model, the relationship between animal husbandry economy and carbon emissions in Heilongjiang Province and the driving factors affecting animal husbandry carbon emissions are explored. The results indicate that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the carbon emissions of animal husbandry in Heilongjiang Province showed an overall slightly upward trend. From the perspective of various emission links, the highest carbon emissions are from the gastrointestinal fermentation environment (42.49%), with beef cattle, cows, and live pigs being the main livestock and poultry in Heilongjiang Province with carbon emissions. (2) The Tapio decoupling model results indicated that from 2000 to 2020, the relationship between the economic development of animal husbandry in Heilongjiang Province and carbon emissions was mainly characterized by weak decoupling. (3) The main driving force behind the continuous increase in carbon emissions from animal husbandry in Heilongjiang Province is the changing factors of agricultural population returns and changes in the production structure of animal husbandry; The driving factors that suppress the increase in carbon emissions from animal husbandry in Heilongjiang Province are changes in animal husbandry production efficiency, population and urban development levels, and population mobility factors. Finally, based on the decoupling effect status and driving factors of decomposition between Heilongjiang Province and its various cities, it is recommended to implement countermeasures and suggestions for the transformation of animal husbandry in the province towards green and low carbon at the macro level. This can be achieved through the adoption of sustainable and eco-friendly practices such as the use of renewable energy sources and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, promoting research and development in sustainable agriculture and animal husbandry can also contribute to the transformation towards a more environmentally friendly industry.