Study on the spatio-temporal coupling and drivers of agricultural carbon emission efficiency and food security

Abstract

In light of global climate change and environmental challenges, reducing agricultural carbon emissions while maintaining food security has become a critical concern for sustainable agricultural development. This study examines 13 provinces in primary grain-producing regions, utilising data from 1999 to 2022 to analyse the spatio-temporal heterogeneity and driving factors of the coupled and coordinated development of agricultural carbon emission efficiency and food security. The findings indicate that: 1) The proportion of carbon emissions from agricultural inputs in primary grain-producing regions exceeds 80%, whereas the contribution of carbon sinks from rice, maise, and wheat surpasses 95%. Both agricultural carbon emissions and carbon sinks in the Yellow River Basin are significantly elevated; 2) The general trend of agricultural carbon emission efficiency and food security is increasing, spatially characterised by a pattern of high levels in the north and south, and low levels in the south and high levels in the north, respectively. The integration of the two systems is progressing positively, and the trailing form of food security has emerged as a developmental trend, with the degree of food security limiting the coordinated advancement of both. 3) The overall spatial disparity exhibits a declining tendency, with hypervariable density being the primary contributor to this spatial difference. The overall polarisation of the primary grain-producing regions has diminished. The level of heterogeneity in the Songhua River basin progressively intensifies; 4) Rural human capital and financial support for agriculture, urbanisation rate and soil erosion control, agricultural machinery power and soil erosion control are the main interaction factors. The economic status and rural human capital will facilitate the integrated and harmonious development of the two systems, while the agricultural disaster rate will impede this integrated and harmonious development. Ultimately, policy solutions are proposed to optimise agricultural inputs and raise their utilisation efficiency, adopt diversified regional development strategies, promote regional connection and coordinated development, and reinforce the management of drivers and policy support.