Studying the dynamics of thermokarst lakes in the West Siberian Arctic based on the analysis of time series of satellite measurements

Abstract

Subject of research: article is the time series of changes in the area of thermokarst lakes in the Arctic under the conditions of modern climatic changes.
 Purpose of research: to analyze the time series of satellite measurements of lake areas for studying the dynamics of lakes in the West Siberian Arctic.
 Methods and objects of research: we present the results of formation and analysis of time series of lake areas intended for studying the dynamics of thermokarst lakes in the Arctic zone of Western Siberia over a 36-year period. The time series were obtained based on the results of remote measurements of the lake areas on the territory of 627 thousand km2 using 688 Landsat satellite images, sampled in the period 1985-2021. The study area was divided into three ecoregions to analyze the territorial features of the vast Arctic zone of Western Siberia. The analysis of the time series showed that the change in the average lake area in the territory of the Arctic zone of Western Siberia exhibits a marked negative linear trend.
 Main results of research: based on the comparison of the trends in the time series of lake areas in the territories of the three ecoregions of the West Siberian Arctic, it was found that the thermokarst lakes of Yamal exhibit the highest rate of change in the areas compared to the other Arctic ecoregions.

Challenges of Changing Water Sources for Human Wellbeing in the Arctic Zone of Western Siberia

“…Climate change has a strong influence on the Arctic's ecosystems due to ongoing warming, which shifts the permafrost boundary northwards and increases the thickness of the "active" seasonally unfrozen layer due to permafrost thaw [77]. Consequently, it is assumed that global warming will lead to an increase in the total area of thermokarst lakes [78][79][80], including in the central and southern parts of the region [62,81,82], although this is uncertain. Thermokarst lakes cover vast areas of many Arctic regions and often exceed 40% of the area in some of the thermokarst-affected lowland regions [82].…”