Studying the Role of Behavioral Characteristics in Individuals Travel Choice Behavior in Response to Earthquake Disaster Using Discrete Choice Models

Abstract

The study of decision-making in response to earthquake disaster including evacuation and destination choice behavior is necessary for emergency planners in order to provide emergency traffic management and solve evacuation problems in transportation network. In this research, it is attempted to study the pattern of choice behavior in Qazvin transport network by considering physical and behavioral factors simultaneously. The required data were collected through a questionnaire from 546 inhabitants of Qazvin based on the stated preferences (SP) survey for six designated earthquake scenarios at different severities and times. The effects of socioeconomic factors, trip daily characteristics, and behavioral factors on decisions to evacuate and choose destinations are studied in this research. The binary logit model is applied for analyzing the evacuation decision, and the multinomial logit model is applied for the destination choice in response to the earthquake disaster. The binary logit model analysis with 73% correct prediction indicates that socioeconomic characteristics including age, marital status, family size, and car ownership have positive effects on evacuation choice. Furthermore, the analysis of behavioral factors indicates that moderate religious belief decreases the likelihood of evacuation, while following previous experiences, trust in acquired trainings, and following decisions made by others moderately increase the likelihood of evacuation. Also, socioeconomic and behavioral factors are the determinants of the destination decision, and the results indicate that individuals following previous experiences highly are more likely to choose gas station and relative’s home destination versus going to urban open spaces.