Sub-chapter 3.4.1. Urbanization and land use as a driver of flood risk

Vinet, Freddy; Saidi, Mohamed El Mehdi; Douvinet, Johnny; Fehri, Noômène; Nasrallah, Wafa; Menad, W.; Mellas, Samira

doi:10.4000/books.irdeditions.23910

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…This relationship can be implemented in our basins in order to integrate it into a flood forecasting system based on soil moisture and rainfall thresholds.Flash floods are not rare in Morocco. As an example, the Ourika valley flood occurred in 17 August 1995 was characterized by a rainfall intensity of 100 mm/h, a peak flow of 1030 m 3 /s and a rising time of 15 min [31], causing important damage and more than 200 deaths [32]. Despite the number of events occurred in recent years, no operational flood forecasting protocols are currently implemented in Morocco.…”

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confidence: 99%

Validation of the AROME, ALADIN and WRF Meteorological Models for Flood Forecasting in Morocco

Khalki

Tramblay

Amengual

et al. 2020

Water

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Flash floods are common in small Mediterranean watersheds and the alerts provided by real-time monitoring systems provide too short anticipation times to warn the population. In this context, there is a strong need to develop flood forecasting systems in particular for developing countries such as Morocco where floods have severe socio-economic impacts. In this study, the AROME (Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale), ALADIN (Aire Limited Dynamic Adaptation International Development) and WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) meteorological models are evaluated to forecast flood events in the Rheraya and Ourika basin located in the High-Atlas Mountains of Morocco. The model evaluation is performed by comparing for a set of flood events the observed and simulated probabilities of exceedances for different precipitation thresholds. In addition, two different flood forecasting approaches are compared: the first one relies on the coupling of meteorological forecasts with a hydrological model and the second one is a based on a linear relationship between event rainfall, antecedent soil moisture and runoff. Three different soil moisture products (in-situ measurements, European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative ESA-CCI remote sensing data and ERA5 reanalysis) are compared to estimate the initial soil moisture conditions before flood events for both methods. Results showed that the WRF and AROME models better simulate precipitation amounts compared to ALADIN, indicating the added value of convection-permitting models. The regression-based flood forecasting method outperforms the hydrological model-based approach, and the maximum discharge is better reproduced when using the WRF forecasts in combination with ERA5. These results provide insights to implement robust flood forecasting approaches in the context of data scarcity that could be valuable for developing countries such as Morocco and other North African countries.

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confidence: 99%

Validation of the AROME, ALADIN and WRF Meteorological Models for Flood Forecasting in Morocco

Khalki

Tramblay

Amengual

et al. 2020

Water

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“…Some authors interpret institutional vulnerability in flood risk management through the lens of urban spatial planning and policy (Cho & Chang, 2017). Researchers such as López‐Martínez et al (2017), Vinet et al (2016) and Liu et al (2016), attribute the increase in flood disasters and damages to inefficient urban planning and flood reduction strategies. In particular, traditional hierarchical forms of flood risk management governance have impeded the collaborative knowledge coproduction for urban planning and flood prevention among various stakeholders (Head, 2014; Musungu et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Institutional vulnerability to urban flood risk management: A case study of the 7·20 flooding disaster in Zhengzhou, China

Shi,

Xie

2024

Contingencies & Crisis Mgmt

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The ‘vulnerability’ approach highlights institutional factors as the primary drivers of flooding risk. However, the intricate connections between institutional vulnerability and urban flood disaster risk have not been extensively explored until now. This study aims to address this gap by examining the case of the 7·20 heavy rainfall disaster in Zhengzhou. Employing a hybrid analysis methodology that integrates text coding, fault tree analysis and analytic hierarchy process methods, the study seeks to identify and assess the distinct contributions of various institutional factors and their interplay, culminating in ineffective urban flood risk management. In contrast to previous research findings that emphasize the determinant role of policy‐making and organizational coordination, this study demonstrates that inadequate legislative compliance constitutes the root cause determining the ineffectiveness of urban flood risk management. It is further exacerbated by insufficient policy attention, resulting in inadequate allocation of resources that ensure the legislative quality, risk coping skills and knowledge and stakeholders' coordination and collaboration. By emphasizing the significance of legislative compliance and policy attention, the study offers a fresh conceptual perspective to understand the factors influencing the efficiency of urban flood risk management. It provides valuable insights to develop targeted countermeasures for mitigating similar urban flood risks in the future.

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“…The Moroccan High Atlas is one of the most vulnerable areas to such extreme events [6]. There, in addition to the intense precipitation, steep slopes cause destructive floods [7], such as the catastrophic event of the Ourika valley in the summer of 1995 that caused several hundred deaths [8]. More recently, in autumn 2014, intense precipitation and major floods in southwestern Morocco caused 47 deaths [9,10] and in the summer of 2019 in the Anti-Atlas Mountain, a deadly flash flood caused seven deaths.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the GPM-IMERG Precipitation Product for Flood Modeling in a Semi-Arid Mountainous Basin in Morocco

Saouabe

Khalki

Saidi

et al. 2020

Water

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A new precipitation dataset is provided since 2014 by the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite constellation measurements combined in the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) algorithm. This recent GPM-IMERG dataset provides potentially useful precipitation data for regions with a low density of rain gauges. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of the near real-time product (IMERG-E) compared to observed rainfall and its suitability for hydrological modeling over a mountainous watershed in Morocco, the Ghdat located upstream the city of Marrakech. Several statistical indices have been computed and a hydrological model has been driven with IMERG-E rainfall to estimate its suitability to simulate floods during the period from 2011 to 2018. The following results were obtained: (1) Compared to the rain gauge data, satellite precipitation data overestimates rainfall amounts with a relative bias of +35.61% (2) In terms of the precipitation detection capability, the IMERG-E performs better at reproducing the different precipitation statistics at the catchment scale, rather than at the pixel scale (3) The flood events can be simulated with the hydrological model using both the observed and the IMERG-E satellite precipitation data with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.58 and 0.71, respectively. The results of this study indicate that the GPM-IMERG-E precipitation estimates can be used for flood modeling in semi-arid regions such as Morocco and provide a valuable alternative to ground-based precipitation measurements.

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Sub-chapter 3.4.1. Urbanization and land use as a driver of flood risk

Cited by 11 publications

References 0 publications

Validation of the AROME, ALADIN and WRF Meteorological Models for Flood Forecasting in Morocco

Validation of the AROME, ALADIN and WRF Meteorological Models for Flood Forecasting in Morocco

Institutional vulnerability to urban flood risk management: A case study of the 7·20 flooding disaster in Zhengzhou, China

Evaluation of the GPM-IMERG Precipitation Product for Flood Modeling in a Semi-Arid Mountainous Basin in Morocco

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