Objective: To explore the possibility of predicting decline or improvement in thyroid function over 1 year, and to investigate the correlations of serum TSH (s-TSH) with hypothyroidism-related symptoms and signs, serum thyroid peroxidase antibody (s-TPO-Ab) and urinary iodine excretion in individual patients with untreated subclinical hypothyroidism (SH). Design: Monthly repeated measurement study without intervention. Methods: Twenty-one patients without former thyroid disease who had been identified with s-TSH between 5 and 12 mU/l and normal serum thyroxine (s-T 4 ) at two occasions were enrolled. Subsequently, 13 monthly measurements of s-TSH, hypothyroidism-related symptoms and signs, serum free T 4 , s-TPO-Ab and urinary iodine excretion were performed. Results: Over the study year, s-TSH increased significantly in 5 patients, 16 had unchanged s-TSH, whereas none improved. From clinical and biochemical inclusion data, it was not possible to predict who would later increase in s-TSH. In individual patients, a highly significant correlation between s-TSH and s-TPO-Ab was found (rZ0.37, P!0.0001) and also between s-TSH and urinary iodine excretion (rZ 0.14, PZ0.034). No correlation between s-TSH and clinical symptoms and signs was observed. Time shift showed best correlation between s-TSH and s-TPO-Ab measured at the same time point, whereas urinary iodine excretion correlated best to s-TSH and s-TPO-Ab obtained 1 month later. Conclusion: At the time of inclusion, it was not possible to identify the 24% of SH patients who would show deterioration in thyroid function over the following year. Impairment in thyroid function varied in parallel with thyroid autoimmunity, whereas high urinary iodine excretion predicted high s-TSH and s-TPO-Ab 1 month later.