Subjective Probabilities Elicitation and Combination in Risk Assessments Problems

Abstract

Very many areas of human activity are associated with greater or lesser risks. In order to make reasonable decisions, these risks must be properly assessed. The consequences of any risk can be characterized on the basis of two fundamental dimensions (metrics): (1) losses associated with the outcomes of implementation an unfavourable event; (2) probabilities that quantify the uncertainties in the occurrence of these outcomes. This article in a concise form presents and analyses approaches to subjective probabilities elicitation and combining the obtained individual estimates in group subjective probabilities estimation.