Subjective Probability Elicitation: A Comparison of Performance Variables

Fertilization under Uncertainty: An Analysis Based on Producer Yield Expectations

“…or indirect (e.g., hypothetical future samples, equivalent prior samples, bet/oddsllottery method, etc.) in their approach (Chesley 1978). Savage argued in favor of indirect methods.…”

“…Considerable study has focused on the appropriateness of the probability density function (PDF) versus the cumulative distribution function (CDF) approaches of probability elicitation (Winkler;Chesley 1975b;Ludke, Strauss, and Gustafson). Winkler found that the probability method (PDF) was intuitively more appealing to subjects than one based upon fractiles (CDF) (Hampton, Moore, and Thomas).…”

“…Empirical results from this study then are presented, and the article concludes with a discussion of the results and areas for additional study. Hampton, Moore, and Thomas;Chesley 1975a;Spetzler and Von Holstein);' These methods range from simple direct assessment to more elaborate indirect procedures. There is evidence to suggest these methods elicit distributions which are inconsistent with each other (Ludke, Strauss, and Gustafson).…”