In 2017, the Chinese government launched a clean heating
campaign
that replaced millions of rural coal stoves with various clean heaters.
The clean heating program contributed to remarkable improvements in
air quality. However, the benefits of reducing heating demand by improving
building envelope efficiency were not sufficiently considered. This
study provides a needed quantitative assessment of potential energy-savings,
costs, greenhouse gas emission reductions, and adoption strategies
for improving building envelope efficiency in Chinese rural residential
buildings. We find that different strategies must be employed in existing
and new buildings to achieve desired outcomes. For existing buildings,
to encourage easy and beneficial building retrofits (e.g., air sealing,
efficient windows), current fuel subsidies should be replaced with
retrofit subsidies. Building retrofits can reduce the size and hence
capital costs of new clean heaters. They can also reduce operating
costs, hence reducing the likelihood of backsliding to coal. For new
construction, whole-home insulation and heat pumps would best avoid
carbon lock-in. These efficient technologies have high upfront costs
but decrease heating costs and significantly reduce carbon emissions
relative to current policies. Hence, subsidies and policies that encourage
improvements in building envelopes as well as the uptake of clean
and efficient heaters are critical.