Oil and gas development generates
large amounts of wastewater (i.e.,
produced water), which in California has been partially disposed of
in unlined percolation/evaporation ponds since the mid-20th century.
Although produced water is known to contain multiple environmental
contaminants (e.g., radium and trace metals), prior to 2015, detailed
chemical characterizations of pondwaters were the exception rather
than the norm. Using a state-run database, we synthesized samples
(n = 1688) collected from produced water ponds within
the southern San Joaquin Valley of California, one of the most productive
agricultural regions in the world, to examine regional trends in pondwater
arsenic and selenium concentrations. We filled crucial knowledge gaps
resulting from historical pondwater monitoring by constructing random
forest regression models using commonly measured analytes (boron,
chloride, and total dissolved solids) and geospatial data (e.g., soil
physiochemical data) to predict arsenic and selenium concentrations
in historical samples. Our analysis suggests that both arsenic and
selenium levels are elevated in pondwaters and thus this disposal
practice may have contributed substantial amounts of arsenic and selenium
to aquifers having beneficial uses. We further use our models to identify
areas where additional monitoring infrastructure would better constrain
the extent of legacy contamination and potential threats to groundwater
quality.