Successful containment of COVID-19: the WHO-Report on the COVID-19 outbreak in China

Salzberger, Bernd; Glück, Thomas; Ehrenstein, Boris

doi:10.1007/s15010-020-01409-4

Cited by 157 publications

(136 citation statements)

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“…In China, where the pandemic has first emerged, drastic measures of social distancing and global isolation have successfully controlled virus spread enabling now a gradual release of the population from quarantine (18). However, global adoption of these extreme measures is implicated in unprecedented social and economic costs that might, directly and indirectly, affect the health system, among many other aspects of our life, in the years to come.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling social distancing strategies to prevent SARS-CoV2 spread in Israel- A Cost-effectiveness analysis

Shlomai

Leshno

Sklan

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic is driving many countries to adopt global isolation measures in an attempt to slow-down its spread. These extreme measures are associated with extraordinary economic costs.Objective: To compare the cost-effectiveness of global isolation of the whole population to focused isolation of individuals at high risk of being exposed, augmented by thorough PCR testing. Design:We applied a modified Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Removed (SEIR) model to compare two different strategies in controlling the SARS-CoV-2 spread. Data sources and target population:We modeled the dynamics in Israel, a small country with ~ 9 million people. Time horizon: 200 days.Interventions: 1. Global isolation of the whole population (strategy 1) 2. Focused isolation of people at high risk of exposure with extensive PCR testing (strategy 2).Outcome measures: Number of deaths and the cost per one avoided death in strategy 1 vs 2. Results of Base-Case analysis:The number of expected deaths is 389 in strategy 1versus 432 in strategy 2. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in case of adhering to global isolation will be $ 102,383,282 to prevent one case of death. Results of sensitivity analysis:The ICER value is between $ 22.5 million to over $280 million per one avoided death.Conclusions: According to our model, global isolation will save ~43 more lives compared to a strategy of focused isolation and extensive screening. This benefit is implicated in tremendous costs that might result in overwhelming economic effects.Limitations: Compartment models do not necessarily fit to countries with heterogeneous populations. In addition, we rely on current published parameters that might not reliably reflect infection dynamics.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling social distancing strategies to prevent SARS-CoV2 spread in Israel- A Cost-effectiveness analysis

Shlomai

Leshno

Sklan

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…The development of vaccines, despite a dramatic worldwide effort, is still a considerable way in the future. Faced with a relatively easily transmissible new pathogen with no known treatment and no existing vaccine, public health responses were limited to traditional measures against transmissible diseases, namely, varying forms of isolating people 23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30 , which led to a whole set of new problems.…”

Section: Epidemic Informationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trying to make sense out of chaos: science, politics and the COVID-19 pandemic

Camargo

2020

Cad. Saúde Pública

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This essay discusses the proliferation of discourses about the COVID-19 pandemic, presenting the challenges both to science and public policies that such an information overload present, having Collins' sociology of expertise as a theoretical framework. Science; Communications Media; Internet; Social Media ENSAIO ESSAYThis article is published in Open Access under the Creative Commons Attribution license, which allows use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, without restrictions, as long as the original work is correctly cited.Camargo Jr. KR 2 Cad. Saúde Pública 2020; 36(5):e00088120The past as prologue "What experience and history teach is this -that peoples and governments have never learned anything from history, or acted on principles deduced from it" (Georg Hegel). Addressing the UN General Assembly in 1987, Jonathan Mann, then director of the Special Programme on AIDS, made the historical remark about the three epidemics 1 : first the propagation of the virus itself, then the irruption of the disease, and finally the social, cultural, economic and political reactions. Mutatis mutandis, this is a reference framework that could be applied to the current pandemic, albeit the second epidemic is not so distant from the first as it was with HIV and AIDS.In this essay, the focus is on the third epidemic, an epidemic of meaning, borrowing from the analysis made by Paula Treichler in the heart of the storm, in her aptly titled book How to Have Theory in an Epidemic 2 . She pointed out how the social dimensions of the AIDS epidemic were far more relevant than one might think, even when acknowledging the central role of biomedicine in the response of that other pandemic. Treichler at one point lists 38 different meanings attributed to AIDS, ranging from the absurd to the outrageous, many of which could apply to the present situation 2 . Leveraged to support discrimination, used as a sort of pedagogic resource to put forward moral theses, and rife with conspiracy theories, those were ideas that circulated wildly in the media then. Similar cultural and mediatic processes are taking place now with COVID-19, the biggest difference with the present is, obviously, the massive presence of Internet-mediated social networks, which were still in its infancy back then.The proliferation of narratives creates a crowded field, making much harder the task of making sense of the prevailing cacophony and finding trustworthy guidelines for action. This is an attempt to reflect about this situation, albeit having in mind a caveat about the risk of bringing critical reflections to such an unstable landscape, as pointed out in a quite satirical piece recently published in the academic blog Somatosphere: "in the haste to manufacture mental personal protective equipment against the Coronascene, it is all too easy to make mistakes, to mass produce instead fatuity, guesswork, and irrelevance" 3 .

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“…This reduction can mainly be explained by reduced number of contacts among people owing to movement restrictions. Studies on the impact of lockdown in other countries also reported reduction in reproductive number which translates in to flattening of the curve and delaying of peak (14)(15)(16)(17)(18)(19). Yet as mentioned earlier, the effective R0 estimations are dynamic and may change over age structure, time and nature of intervention.…”

mentioning

confidence: 94%

Impact of COVID-19 epidemic curtailment strategies in selected Indian states: an analysis by reproduction number and doubling time with incidence modelling

Mitra

Pakhare

Roy

et al. 2020

Preprint

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The Government of India in network with the State Governments has implemented the epidemic curtailment strategies inclusive of case-isolation, quarantine and lockdown in response to ongoing novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak . In this manuscript we attempt to estimate the effect of these steps across ten Indian states using crowd-sourced data. The chosen transmission parameters are -reproduction number (R0), doubling time and growth rate during the early epidemic phase (15 days into lockdown) and 30 days into lockdown (23rd April 2020) through maximum likelihood approach.The overall analysis shows the decreasing trends in reproductive numbers and growth rate (with few exceptions) and incremental doubling time. The curtailment strategies employed by the Indian government seems to be effective in reducing the transmission parameters of the COVID-19 epidemic. The effective reproductive numbers are still higher above the threshold of 1, the resultant absolute numbers tend to augment as a function of time. The curtailment strategy thus may take into account these findings while formulating further course of actions.

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Successful containment of COVID-19: the WHO-Report on the COVID-19 outbreak in China

Cited by 157 publications

References 1 publication

Modeling social distancing strategies to prevent SARS-CoV2 spread in Israel- A Cost-effectiveness analysis

Modeling social distancing strategies to prevent SARS-CoV2 spread in Israel- A Cost-effectiveness analysis

Trying to make sense out of chaos: science, politics and the COVID-19 pandemic

Impact of COVID-19 epidemic curtailment strategies in selected Indian states: an analysis by reproduction number and doubling time with incidence modelling

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